The Boston Red Sox and Chicago Cubs clash at Wrigley Field on Saturday night. Chicago will send ace Shota Imanaga to the hill tonight but my Red Sox vs. Cubs predictions are fading him.
See why with my best free MLB picks for this interleague showdown on July 19.
Red Sox vs Cubs prediction
My Red Sox vs Cubs best bet: Shota Imanaga Under 17.5 outs (+105 at bet365)
Chicago Cubs southpaw Shota Imanaga has pitched to a sparkling 2.65 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP through 12 starts.
That said, there are several reasons to fade Imanaga here. The first is that the Boston Red Sox are red-hot at the plate, ranking second in the majors in OPS (.818) and runs per game (5.83) over the last 30 days.
Boston also excels against lefties, batting an MLB-high .272 with an OPS of .790.
Another factor to consider is that Imanaga's underlying metrics are poor. His expected ERA is at 3.81, and he's in the bottom 25th percentile in average exit velocity and barrel rate.
He's also in the bottom 3% in ground ball rate, which could lead to trouble with the wind blowing out at Wrigley on a hot and humid night.
Keep in mind that Imanaga has struggled at home, pitching to a 4.61 ERA, and despite how productive he's been this year, he's logged fewer than 17.5 outs in eight of 12 starts overall.
This is a five-star play according to THE BAT X, which is projecting 15.2 outs for Imanaga today.
Red Sox vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Imanaga Under 5.5 strikeouts
Bello Under 4.5 strikeouts
Story 2+ total bases
We can't play the Under 17.5 outs for Imanaga in an SGP, so let's find another way to fade him. He's in the bottom 25th percentile in strikeout rate and has finished with fewer than 5.5 strikeouts in nine of 12 starts.
I'm also fading Red Sox starter Brayan Bello on his strikeouts total. Bello is in the bottom 25th percentile in strikeout rate, chase rate, and whiff rate. He has struck out fewer than 4.5 batters in nine of 15 starts this year.
There's a solid chance Bello gets chased early by the Cubs, who lead the majors in scoring. Even if he has a decent workload, he'll have a tough time generating punchouts against a lineup that ranks fourth in strikeout rate.
Meanwhile, Boston's Trevor Story is red-hot and will have the platoon advantage against Imanaga. The two-time Silver Slugger was ice-cold at the beginning of the season but has turned things around. He has slugged .541 since the start of June and is slashing .377/.415/.672 over the last 16 games.
Red Sox vs Cubs odds
Red Sox vs Cubs live odds
Red Sox vs Cubs opening odds
- Moneyline: Boston +125 | Chicago -150
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-160) | Chicago -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 9.0 (-105) | Under 9.0 (-115)
Red Sox vs Cubs trend
The Red Sox have hit the First Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 away games (+8.05 Units / 19% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Cubs.
How to watch Red Sox vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Saturday, 7-19-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
| Red Sox starting pitcher | Brayan Bello (6-3, 3.14 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Shota Imanaga (6-3, 2.65 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Cubs latest injuries
Red Sox vs Cubs weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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