After taking Game 1 of a three-game series against a struggling Boston Red Sox (74-74) squad, the Toronto Blue Jays (81-67) remain just a 0.5 game back of the third spot in the AL Wild Card Race.
There aren’t a lot of bright spots for either team right now, but a couple of rookies could be the catalyst in Boston as the organization starts to shift focus to 2024, and we're targeting their MLB odds.
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays on Saturday, September 16.
Red Sox vs Blue Jays odds
Red Sox vs Blue Jays predictions
There’s a lot of promise in Boston with a trio of rookies like Wilyer Abreu, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Triston Casas providing hope for Red Sox fans everywhere.
Casas, the only one of the three to spend the majority of the season in the majors, has had his hiccups, but ultimately is second on the team in home runs this season with 24 while adding 65 RBIs, fourth-most for the Crimson Hose, and scoring 66 runs, fifth-most on the team.
On Saturday, he’ll see Blue Jays right-handed pitcher Chris Bassitt take the mound, and Casas is set up to hit hard against him.
Bassitt has a deep pitch repertoire with eight he can go to, but has leaned heavily on his sinker this season, using it 38.8% of the time, followed by his cutter (15.5%), curveball (12.3%), fastball (10.1%), and sweeper (9.1%).
While Casas isn’t a dominant contact hitter with his .263 average, he’s got that mashing ability that’s led to a .490 slugging percentage and 21 doubles this season.
With Bassitt’s most utilized pitch being the sinker, it sets up well for Casas to at minimum get on base, though that +475 for him to hit a home run (at SIA) would be a nice weekend pick-me-up.
This season, Casas is batting .313 against sliders with a .500 slugging percentage — not too shabby — and while his average drops against cutters (.237), he’s been clobbering them with a .553 slugging percentage; he also brings a .535 slugging percentage against four-seamers.
Something else that’s going to help his cause is the fact that the man knows how to walk, and that’s reflected in his .367 OBP.
Casas actually leads Boston, and rookies, in walks with 70, 17 more than the next Red Sox batter this season. Only three rookies have ever led the Red Sox in walks (Joe Foy, Ted Williams, and Marv Olson).
Obviously, if Casas gets on base, his job is not done when we’re betting on him to score. That’s where we’ll need 30-year-old rookie Masataka Yoshida to step up batting in the five-hole.
He’s clocked in 68 RBIs behind his .288 batting average this season, and brings his average up to .289 against the sinker and has a .320 average overall against all fastballs this season.
Behind him, batting sixth, is Abreu. The 24-year-old has been a dynamo in just 18 games with a .365 average, .519 slugging percentage, and 10 RBIs.
Betting on Casas to score a run is a little nerve-racking given the reliance on other players to do their jobs, but the young first baseman, who missed Game 1 of the series, has scored eight times in his last 12 games.
My best bet: Triston Casas Over 0.5 runs (+125 at Sports Interaction)
Red Sox vs Blue Jays same-game parlay
Casas Over 0.5 run (+125)
Casas Over 0.5 home run (+550)
Yoshida Over 0.5 hit (-260)
We’re going all-in on Casas hitting my best bet in explosive style in this SGP with a home run clearing the bet and cashing us in a little extra, plus we’re tossing Yoshida into the mix to sweeten the pot and back the thought process of Casas Over 0.5 runs.
Over the last 28 days, the rookie first baseman has been batting .309 with a .519 slugging percentage and he’s been smoking righties all season with 20 home runs.
Yoshida, who also sees a spike in production against righties, is hitting .296 against them this season with a .466 slugging percentage while adding 50 RBIs.
Obviously, there’s no harm in placing a bet purely on Casas to hit a home run either, so far in September he’s hit three of them. Don’t forget that Boston manager Alex Cora mentioned arguably the greatest baseball player of all time in the same breath as his young star when they played the San Francisco Giants.
“I saw one of the great ones dominating from 2000 to 2004, and that ball (Casas) hit to left-center, that was one of the best home runs I’ve seen here,” Cora said. "And I saw many. I saw (Bonds) hit No. 500, No. 600, No. 700, No. 73...That was a great swing.”
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
On Friday night, the Blue Jays took Game 1 of the series 3-0 after closing between -145 and -190 home favorites at most books.
They opened Game 2 between -119 and -130 pretty much everywhere, though Caesars opened with the Red Sox -115.
The line has shifted towards Toronto after they sealed the deal last night and they’re -125 to -139.
With the total closing at 8.5 for Game 1, the two struggling teams hit the Under with ease, but it hasn’t impacted today’s total much. It opened between 8.5 and 9 everywhere and remains there.
As of Saturday morning, PointsBet, Betway, and 888sport are offering the Under at +100 and DraftKings has the Under at +102. Caesars, BetMGM, and BetRivers are among the books offering the Over at +100.
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Trend to know
When Casas hits a home run, the Boston Red Sox are 14-9. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
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Red Sox vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, September 16, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 3:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Chris Sale (6-4, 4.88 ERA): The 34-year-old Sale isn’t what he used to be, but after missing most of three seasons, he’s shown he can still pitch in the majors. In 17 starts this year, he’s gone 86 2/3 innings with 106 strikeouts. But in his last appearance, he did get slammed by the Baltimore Orioles, giving up six earned runs and two homers. Given his injury history and age, the lefty rarely goes more than five innings.
Chris Bassitt (14-8, 3.83 ERA): The 34-year-old former Bassitt has been a fine addition in Toronto this season. In 30 starts, he’s gone 178 2/3 innings while striking out 161 batters. However, he’s prone to giving up dingers, and is tied for 13th-most allowed in the league with 26. In his last start against the Texas Rangers the former All-Star got hammered, giving up five earned runs, nine hits, and a homer. In his last nine starts, he’s given up eight home runs.
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