The New York Yankees' offensive woes continued over the weekend, and after dropping two of three to Baltimore they limp back to Yankee Stadium to face the Tampa Bay Rays.
MLB odds have the Yankees as home dogs tonight, and while I'm inclined to agree with that sentiment, I think the real money lies in cashing on this toothless offense to again offer nothing more than a slight nibble of potency.
Read on to see the best way to fade the Bronx "Bombers" with my best free MLB picks for Yankees vs. Rays on Monday, July 31.
Rays vs Yankees odds
Rays vs Yankees predictions
The good news for the New York Yankees is that Aaron Judge is back. The bad news is that basically the rest of the lineup still exists, meaning this remains a very, very bad offense.
Dating back to July 17, an 11-game span, the Yankee bats have scored three or fewer runs seven times. Remove a three-game stretch against the Royals — a.k.a the third-worst pitching staff in baseball — and we're looking at three runs or fewer in seven of eight games, with a .217 average and 31.3% strikeout rate.
Tonight, the Yankees face towering Tampa Bay Rays righty Tyler Glasnow, who has been locked in since returning in late May. He's given up three earned runs or fewer in nine of 10 starts following his season debut and is riding a July heater that's seen him concede just five earned runs on 16 hits, with 32 strikeouts, over his last 25 2/3 innings.
Glasnow has also done well against most of the bats he will likely face tonight, including Judge (2/10) and DJ LeMahieu (3/14) struggling to find success, with Gleyber Torres and Giancarlo Stanton both at 2-for-7 in their careers representing the most success.
The earned runs total for the Tampa righty is either 2.5 (juiced to the Under) or 1.5 (heavily towards the Over), so instead I'm looking towards the Yankees' team total, despite being a paltry 3.5 runs.
Assuming Glasnow can again deliver six or seven strong innings — not outrageous considering his recent run has seen him silence the Braves, Orioles, and Marlins — and seeing the Rays' top arms are all basically rested and ready, it should be another pain-filled evening for the New York offense.
My best bet: Yankees TT U3.5 runs (+100 at DraftKings)
Rays vs Yankees same-game parlay
Yankees TT U3.5 runs
Tyler Glasnow 7+ strikeouts
Rays -1.5
I'm expecting Glasnow to dominate the Yankees, so having him record at least seven strikeouts — just below what his Over/Under line is tonight — shouldn't be much of a stretch as New York has a near-27% strikeout rate against righties over the last two weeks and Glasnow has hit 7+ Ks in each of his last six outings (9.2 Ks per start in that span).
Finally, the Yanks are sending out Jhony Brito to start, who's been in the minors since late June and was recalled following Domingo German's late scratch, and he will be in tough against a still dangerous Rays lineup. Tampa could put up a crooked number here... but they really only need 4-5 runs to have a legit shot at covering the -1.5.
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Rays vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with Tampa around -127, but has since ballooned to see the Rays as shorts as -170 at some outlets, following the announcement that Brito would be starting for NYY.
Tampa has had a brutal July, sporting a 7-16 record, but they're coming off a series win at Houston, scoring 16 runs in three games, and again — the Yankees are essentially a AAA lineup, with one truly talented slugger in Judge.
As for the total, it's low at 8.5, but the work will need to be done entirely by the Rays to make this happen: New York will be in tough to score multiple runs on the red-hot Glasnow, so it's a question of how hard will Brito be beaten up — oddsmakers think they'll do enough as the Over is slightly favored.
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Trend to know
The Yankees have seen the Team Total Under hit in 32 of their last 55 games (10% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Yankees
Rays vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Monday, July 31, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Tyler Glasnow (4-3, 3.36 ERA): He has been utterly dominant as of late, and Glasnow's Statcast page has him in the Top 10 percent of the league in K-rate, whiff rate, and chase rate. His fastball is generally more in the 96-97 mph range than triple digits, but he still pairs it with a lethal slider and curveball to keep hitters off-balance.
Jhony Brito (4-4, 4.70 ERA): Brito is making his first MLB appearance since late June, and while he was all over the board between solid and "so-so" in his first 12 appearances before being sent down, his xBA and barrel rate, along with low strikeout and whiff rates, don't portend well vs. a Rays lineup that can do damage 1-9. He faced TB once already this season, allowing four runs on six hits (with just two strikeouts) in four innings.
