Rays vs Yankees Picks and Predictions: Montas' Struggles Continue in Pinstripes

The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays start a three-game series in the Bronx on Friday night.

It finally feels real. The Yanks' collapse of the AL East lead could actually happen. For most of the season, New York held a double-digit game advantage atop the division. Now, somehow, someway, that lead has gone to just 4.5 games, with Tampa Bay and Toronto coming in hot.

Who will take Game 1 of this divisional tilt? Find out in our Rays vs. Yankees MLB betting picks and predictions for September 9, 2022

Rays vs Yankees best odds

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Rays vs Yankees picks and predictions

I'm done backing Frankie Montas for the time being. Each time I've done so, I've been burnt. The peripherals suggest he's due for some significant positive regression for the Yankees. However, something hasn't felt right.

We've yet to see a single game in the pinstripes where he looked like he did for Oakland. That's concerning, but for whatever reason, you have to have serious questions about whether Montas can handle the bright New York lights.

I'm backing the Rays' first five run line tonight. It's not a sexy bet, but it's the best one vs. the number. My projections have it priced at -200, which makes the -150 that you can currently get quite appealing. 

Drew Rasmussen is a good pitcher, managing to keep his ERA below three this season despite having an xERA over that number. Usually, you'd look at that and think negative regression is due. You'd be enticed by something like his hard-hit rate that ranks below league average, along with an average exit velocity. However, this isn't an ordinary situation.

Rasmussen's primary two pitches have been excellent, as his four-seam fastball and cutter have produced run values that rank near the league's top. The one pitch he's had issues with has been the slider, which happens to be the one pitch the Yankees struggle with hitting. Almost all of their slash numbers go down against it, and even Aaron Judge's numbers suffer. Rasmussen does a good job avoiding flyballs and producing ground balls.

Again, there's not a ton I can look at with Montas and say that's the issue. The numbers he's produced in New York don't follow the advanced metrics. However, he just looked uncomfortable, and you can't ignore that. His fastball has been a consistent issue in New York, producing a run value of -6, and it's been his most popular pitch this season. The Rays don't hit the fastball exceptionally well relative to the league, but they do hit it better than other pitches.

The simple handicap here is that I trust Drew Rasmussen more than Frankie Montas. The numbers do nothing but back that. Even though we're paying for some juice here, there's still value. I'll sprinkle the moneyline but find the most value on the run line. 

My best bet: Rays first five innings +0.5 (-150 at BetMGM)

Rays vs Yankees betting preview

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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Moneyline analysis

I've repeatedly talked about how we got to this point with the Yankees, where they've struggled so much that they've become a nice buy-low team. On the surface, the circumstances fit this mold. New York is paying in the Bronx, and it's been outstanding this season at home, even with the struggles. Additionally, if it can take two of three, you have to like its chances to put this divisional race to bed. 

However, I can't get past the pitching matchup. I explained why that's the case above. There's not much of a trend here either way. The Rays have been hot, but are 2-5 in their last seven games in New York. Additionally, you could make the case that the Yankees are now "hot" as they've won three of their previous four. 

If you're making a bet here, it has to be the Rays. The pitching mismatch is sizable, and that's all we need to separate these teams. My projections sees the Rays at -105 on the moneyline. That's precisely how the oddsmakers view them as well. I will wait until the first pitch and hopefully see some Yankees' money. Tampa Bay is a play-at-plus money odds, but I'll stay away if I can't get it there.

Over/Under analysis

The Under is the play for me and one I'll be wagering on.

Even if Montas isn't at his best like I expect, I don't think Tampa Bay is equipped to pile on many runs against him. As previously stated, it doesn't hit many fastballs with an exceptional hard-hit rate and generally doesn't put up a ton of runs. As a result, the Rays will undoubtedly go into the playoffs as the team in the playoffs scoring the least amount of runs. But, of course, those runs go down even more on the road. 

I've already explained why I like Rasmussen to keep this Yankees' offense down. My predictions agree with that as well. The Yanks score on average 2.5 runs and two runs or less in just under 50% of simulations.

Back a low-scoring affair here tonight.

Rays vs Yankees game info

• Location: Yankees Stadium, New York, NY
• Date: Friday, September 9, 2022
• First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Prime Video

Starting pitchers

Drew Rasmussen (9-4, 2.70 ERA): It's been a good season for Rasmussen. August was terrific for him. For the month, he posted an ERA of 1.5, including a six-inning, one earned run appearance in his last start against the Miami Marlins. Rasmussen's best attribute is keeping the ball out of the air, avoiding the barrel, and inducing ground balls. His barrel rate is in the Top 20% of the league, and his flyball rate is in the Top 15%. As discussed above, Rasmussen's xERA ERA has screamed for negative regression throughout the season. However, his two most favorable pitches have been so good that he's managed to avoid that. 

Frankie Montas (5-11, 3.79 ERA): Montas has been a different pitcher in a Yankees uniform. In August — his first entire month wearing the Pinstripes — Montas posted an ERA over seven. There are various reasons why this could be happening, but one is obvious: His fastball has been bad. Since August, he's posted the second worst four-seam fastball run value among any starting pitcher. It's a big reason his barrel rate has also followed and fallen to the bottom half of qualified pitchers. His last start was his best in a Yankees uniform, and came against this Tampa Bay Rays team. He posted five innings, giving up just one earned run against them. I'm dubious of him repeating this, however. 

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-0 in the last five Rays' games against a right-handed starting pitcher. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Yankees

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