The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox begin a four-game series at Fenway Park on Friday night. The Rays have the best record in the majors and a four-game lead atop the AL East standings, while the Red Sox are at the bottom of the division despite being two games above .500.
MLB betting lines for this AL East showdown opened with the Rays as -125 road favorites before growing to -140. Here are my best free Rays vs. Red Sox MLB picks and predictions for June 2.
Rays vs Red Sox odds
Rays vs Red Sox predictions
While both teams have produced at the plate, the Rays have been a bit more consistent and the analytics indicate that their production is far more sustainable long-term.
Tampa Bay is second in the majors in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity while ranking third in barrel rate. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are 16th in hard-hit rate, 13th in average exit velocity, and 18th in barrel rate.
We haven't seen a large sample size for either starter this season, however, Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow has the more proven track record over his career. Glasnow made his season debut last Saturday and fanned eight batters in just 4 2/3 innings of work.
Boston's Garrett Whitlock has made four starts this season and was torched in two of them. Although he looked very good in his return from the IL last Saturday, he was shredded by the Rays back in April, surrendering three homers and five runs in five innings.
With the Rays having the advantage on the mound and on the hill, I'm leaning toward them on the moneyline.
My best bet: Rays moneyline (-140 at bet365)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Rays vs Red Sox moneyline analysis
The Rays are coming off a rest day after beating the Cubs on Wednesday to improve their record to an MLB-best 40-18. The Red Sox beat the Reds last night but are just 2-6 in their last eight home games while sitting at the bottom of the AL East with a 29-27 mark.
Glasnow was looking like a future All-Star before undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2021. He returned from rehab at the end of last season and scattered just six hits while allowing one run through 11 2/3 innings across three games.
Whitlock was effective in a hybrid starter/reliever role last season but he's been inconsistent as a full-time starter so far this year. He looked excellent in a pair of outings against the Diamondbacks and Angels but struggled in starts versus the Brewers and Rays.
These have been two of the best hitting teams in baseball with the Rays leading the majors in OPS (.829) while the BoSox rank fifth (.769).
The Red Sox shored up their bullpen in the offseason and their relievers are 11th in the majors in ERA (3.85) while ranking ninth in WHIP (1.25). The Rays bullpen is 22nd in ERA (4.32) and 17th in WHIP (1.31).
Rays vs Red Sox Over/Under analysis
When Glasnow and Whitlock are on, they've both very effective starters. However, we're seeing a relatively high total of 9.5 tonight due to the explosive offenses that both clubs possess.
The Rays are second in the majors with 5.86 runs per game despite playing their home contests at a pitcher-friendly park. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are fourth with 5.23 runs per game with that number bumping up to 6.07 runs/game at Fenway.
It is worth mentioning that since Glasnow and Whitlock both came off lengthy stints on the IL just last weekend, they might be on a pitch count tonight. The Over/Under for outs on both starters is installed at a modest 15.5.
If they don't pitch deep into this game, the bullpens for both squads might have a tough time navigating the later innings.
Rays vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Friday, June 2, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SN1, NESN |
Starting pitchers
Tyler Glasnow (0-0, 6.23 ERA): The talented right-hander had a sizzling 2.66 ERA through his first 14 starts in 2021 before tearing his UCL and needing Tommy John surgery. He began this season on the IL with an oblique strain but made his season debut last Saturday, allowing five hits and three runs while fanning eight batters in 4 1/3 innings.
Garrett Whitlock (2-2, 5.14 ERA): Whitlock missed more than a month with ulnar neuritis but returned from the IL last Saturday and limited the Diamondbacks to three hits and one run in five innings of work. Whitlock had a 1.96 ERA as a rookie reliever in 2021 and played a hybrid starter role last year when he pitched to a 3.45 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP across 78 1/3 innings.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Rays are 10-1 in their last 11 games following an off day. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Red Sox
