The Tampa Bay Rays (57-28) made history in Game 1, storming back from a 4-0 deficit after three innings to win a 15-4 blowout. How will the Seattle Mariners (38-42) bounce back in Game 2 on Saturday?
Looking at the MLB odds, Game 2 is anticipated to be a pitchers’ duel between Tampa’s Tyler Glasnow and Seattle’s George Kirby. Check out why I’m dubious about that expectation for my best bet, and read on for my full MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Mariners on Saturday, July 1.
Rays vs Mariners odds
Rays vs Mariners predictions
To my eyes, Rays starter Tyler Glasnow is a player whose on-field production has not matched his significant off-field hype.
I understand the hype — he’s a special talent that will be a force to reckon with . . . if he ever puts it all together. He’s struggled tremendously with injuries, however, and his return this year has been unremarkable after missing half of the 2021 season and nearly all of the 2022 campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery.
The tall right-hander is electric on the mound, ranking 13th among starters with a 117 Stuff+ metric over at FanGraphs. He had a terrific 30.5% career K-rate, but his 4.03 career ERA does not meet expectations for someone who is talked about as an elite pitcher. Everyone loves the swings and misses, but what happens when opponents make contact?
While Glasnow has no trouble making batters miss, he has one huge flaw — surrendering an exorbitant amount of hard contact.
The 29-year-old hurler ranks dead last among all players with a gargantuan 17.4% barrel rate — yikes! He ranks in the seventh percentile in hard-hit percentage, too, so it’s no surprise that his BABIP is all the way up at .328. While his ERA (4.46) has only suffered so much, his 5.26 xERA does indicate darker days are ahead if he doesn’t fix this issue.
For a pitcher that relies on blowing away batters so much, it’s concerning that his average fastball velocity of 96.2 mph is way down so far in 2023. That’s the slowest his fastball has been in over five years and is well down from the 97.6 mph he averaged in a small sample last year.
On the other side, Mariners starter George Kirby’s 3.33 career ERA over his first two seasons is very promising. Most of his underlying metrics aren’t so rosy, however. The right-hander ranks in the bottom half of the league in nearly every metric other than velocity, chase rate, and walk rate.
Kirby’s in the 21st percentile in xBA, 33rd percentile in xSLG, and 16th percentile in Whiff%. While he’s been able to compensate for those deficiencies against lesser teams, he’ll have a more difficult time doing so against Saturday’s opponent.
Tampa Bay has had the best offense in the league this season by most statistical measures. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Rays have been an Over team this season, mashing their way to a 47-34-4 O/U record. They’re in fine form, ranking sixth in wRC+ (127) and seventh in wOBA (.345) over the last 10 days.
I think this Over can be reached in a few ways. Glasnow’s profile is circumspect, while Kirby faces the best offense in the league. I therefore will be playing the Over considering the total is all the way down at 7.
My best bet: Over 7 (-120 at DraftKings)
Rays vs Mariners same-game parlay
Over 7.5
Glasnow 4+ hits allowed
Rodriguez 2+ TB
We’ll use our best bet as outlined above for the first leg of our SGP. This format requires that a 0.5 be added to the total, so we’ll take Over 7.5 at plus odds.
The second leg features Glasnow allowing at least four hits. If the Over is going to hit in this matchup, it’s highly likely that he allows a couple hits along the way. He’s surrendered at least this many hits in five of his seven starts in 2023.
Lastly, we’ll take Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez to notch at least two total bases at +155 odds, bringing our SGP to +525. The young slugger has an .808 OPS against right-handed pitching since 2021 and has typically been much better at home, posting an .852 OPS at T-Mobile Park.
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Rays vs Mariners moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Rays are -120 at most books, while the best comeback available on the Mariners at current is +106.
It’s difficult for me to lay even the slightest juice in this spot as I view Game 2 as a toss-up. I didn’t end up using the Mariners moneyline as a leg in the SGP because I don’t see any edge at the current numbers.
While I’m skeptical of Glasnow, I also question everything about the Mariners. They’ve won just one of their last six games and are 0-4 in their last four during Game 2 of a series.
The total opened at 7.5 but has since moved to 7 at most mooks. Be sure to shop around using our MLB odds tool to find the best price, as 7.5 is still showing at some sites as of the time of this writing.
The Over is 5-1 in Seattle’s last six games against a right-handed starter and is 6-2 in its last eight games overall.
Tampa has also been cruising in that direction, going 8-2-1 in its last 11 games against a right-handed starter and 5-1 in its last six against a team with a losing record.
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Trend to know
The Rays are 8-2-1 O/U in their last 11 games against a right-handed starting pitcher. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Mariners
Rays vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Saturday, July 1, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Tyler Glasnow (2-1, 4.45 ERA): Glasnow was electric last time out, striking out 12 batters across five innings of one-run ball. The 6-foot-8 hurler has mostly been effective this season but has been a bit hit or miss. He’s allowed just three combined earned runs in his four best starts but has been dinged for 12 earned runs in his three worst.
George Kirby (6-7, 3.26 ERA): Kirby is off to a very strong start to his career. After posting a 3.39 ERA across 25 starts a year ago, the 25-year-old now has a 3.26 ERA, 3.80 xERA, and 3.27 FIP across 15 starts in 2023. He’s a fan of throwing at home, tossing 14 innings of scoreless baseball in his last two starts at T-Mobile Park.
