Rays vs Guardians Picks and Predictions: Quantrill Guards the Mound

The Guardians have been rolling of late, facing a slumping Rays squad that's been particularly bad against right-handed pitching. With a long leash tonight, our MLB picks like Cal Quantrill to put in a deep outing.

Last Updated: Sep 29, 2022 11:06 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Cal Quantrill Cleveland Guardians MLB picks
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We have the third and final game of this series with the AL Central’s Cleveland Guardians hosting the AL East’s Tampa Bay Rays. This matchup is the sixth meeting between these two clubs this season, with Cleveland winning three of the first five games.

Will the Guardians win once again at home, or can the Rays pull off the victory as a short road favorite? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs Guardians on Thursday, September 29.

Rays vs Guardians best odds

Rays vs Guardians picks and predictions

Right-hander Cal Quantrill is taking the mound for Cleveland, and should be an excellent candidate to back. Through 30 starts this season, he’s 14-5 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. 

While he has been strong all season, he enters this game in particularly good form. Recording at least 18 outs in eight of his last 11 outings, we should expect this trend to continue in this matchup.

Over those last 11 starts, Quantrill is 7-0 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Across two career starts against the Rays, he’s 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, while in his latest outing against them, he recorded 18 outs.

Since August 1, Tampa Bay ranks just 21st in the league in SLG, 20th in OPS, and 19th in wOBA when facing right-handed pitching. These two clubs enter this game in opposite form, with Cleveland winning 17 of its last 20 games and the Rays losing 12 of their last 20.

I believe Quantrill can easily eclipse 18 outs, especially considering that the Guardians utilized four different relief pitchers in last night’s extended game and may need Quantrill to go deeper into this contest.

My best bet: Cal Quantrill Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-125)

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Rays vs Guardians moneyline analysis

I would lean towards the Guardians moneyline in this contest but am hesitant to pull the trigger. Quantrill has been outstanding, and Cleveland has been on an absolute tear over the last month.

However, left-hander Jeffrey Springs is taking the mound for Tampa Bay and has also been fantastic. Through 31 appearances this season, Springs is 9-4 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

While he has been strong all season, he enters this game in particularly good form. Over his last five starts, Springs is 3-0 with a 1.78 ERA and 1.08 WHIP.

His metrics suggest that regression should not be an issue, posting a .287 xwOBA, .232 xBA, and .373 xSLG this year. On top of that, the Rays are vying for better positioning in the AL Wild Card race while the Guardians have already clinched the division and are not going to overtake either Houston or New York in the overall American League standings.

For those reasons, I'm staying away from picking a side.

Rays vs Guardians Over/Under analysis

At first glance, the Under seems appealing. Both pitchers have been excellent all season and each enters this contest in particularly good form.

But I’m still hesitant. Why not take the Under? First of all, the current number for the game is at 6.5, and that’s too low for my liking regardless of who is on the mound.

Additionally, while Springs has been a weapon on the mound recently, he’s struggled against the Guardians. Through three career outings against Cleveland, he’s 0-1 with a 4.70 ERA.

On top of that, the Guardians have been hitting well against left-handed pitching. Since August 1, Cleveland ranks fourth in the league in BA when facing left-handers.

Will we get the Springs that has dominated opponents lately, or the one that has struggled against the Guardians? I’m not confident in either direction, so I’m staying away from the total.

Rays vs Guardians trend to know

Cal Quantrill has recorded at least 18 outs in eight of his last 11 starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Guardians

Rays vs Guardians game info

Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
Date: Thursday, September 29, 2022
First pitch: 6:10 p.m. ET
TV: Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Great Lakes

Starting pitchers

Jeffrey Springs (9-4, 2.56 ERA): Making his 32nd appearance on the mound for Tampa Bay this season, Springs will look to continue his recent stretch of strong pitching. Over his last five starts, he’s 3-0 with a 1.78 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Possessing a four-pitch arsenal, Springs typically relies on his 4-seam fastball to set up his changeup and slider. Opposing hitters possess a BA south of .245 against each of those three pitches this season.

Cal Quantrill (14-5, 3.49 ERA): Making his 31st start on the mound for Cleveland this season, Quantrill will also look to continue his recent stretch of strong pitching. Over his last 11 outings, he’s 7-0 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Across those 11 starts, Quantrill has recorded at least 18 outs eight times. Boasting a five-pitch arsenal, he mainly relies on his sinker and cutter.

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