Rays vs Blue Jays Picks and Predictions: Bo Shines in Game 1 of Crucial Series

The Toronto Blue Jays open a massive five-game series when they welcome the Tampa Bay Rays to town tonight. 

Toronto trails Tampa by just a half-game in the American League Wild Card standings heading into this rare five-game set, and carries a ton of moment and confidence with it after returning home following a 9-2 road trip.

Arguably no one has more confidence right now than Toronto shortstop Bo Bichette, who has been tearing the cover off the ball in the month of September. 

With Tampa Bay calling up some AAA arms to slow down Bo and Co., it’s no surprise today’s best bet involves Bichette’s current flow. Find out what exactly it is in my free MLB betting picks and predictions for this AL East battle between the Rays and Blue Jays. 

Rays vs Blue Jays best odds

Rays vs Blue Jays picks and predictions

The Blue Jays come into this series riding the momentum of a 9-2 road trip and a big part of that has been because of the play of Bo Bichette. The Blue Jays’ shortstop has been hotter than the surface of the sun since the start of September and it feels like his approach at the plate has settled down a bit and really turned him loose. 

Bichette is doing a much better job of keeping his head down and letting the ball come to his bat and has been willing to take the ball the other way — and the results have been phenomenal. Bichette has tallied 22 hits in 44 at-bats (.500) in the month of September and owns an impressive 1.602 OPS. That includes 13 extra-base hits (six home runs).

Meanwhile, the Rays enter this series leading the Blue Jays by just a half-game for the top wild-card spot in the American League but are coming off a rough weekend at Yankee Stadium. Tampa Bay got two innings combined from its two starters over its last two games and had to dig deep into its bullpen — including using long man Ryan Yarbrough for five innings yesterday.

So, the Rays called up Cooper Criswell to pitch his first big league innings this year, while also calling up four more arms from their Triple-A squad. The right-hander has just 1 1-3 Major League innings under his belt. That came last season with the Los Angeles Angels where he gave up three runs on six hits against the San Diego Padres. 

While the Rays still have some great arms in that pen, I’m giving the edge to Bo in this matchup. He stays in his flow and goes Over 1.5 total bases for the eighth time in his last 11 games. The even money is the cherry on top.

My best bet: Bo Bichette Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at BetRivers)

Rays vs Blue Jays betting preview

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•Side analysis •Over/Under analysis •Starting pitchers •Injuries •Weather •Trend to know

Moneyline analysis

The Blue Jays opened this American League East matchup as about -145 favorites but bettors have sided with Toronto here, moving the line to as much as -164. And it makes sense. Toronto is starting a Major League pitcher while the Rays are not.

Unfortunately, for Jays fans and backers, that pitcher is Jose Berrios, whose 2022 season has been about as violent of a roller coaster as a starter can have. After another short upswing with solid starts against the Yankees and Red Sox, Berrios then allowed six runs on a whopping 18 hits over his last two starts against the Cubs and Orioles.

The latest downswing has inflated Berrios’ expected ERA to 5.39 while surrendering a .275 expected batting average to opponents. 

Toronto theoretically should be favored by even more than this if you could trust Berrios to put up a reliable start. Unfortunately, he just hasn’t been able to do that.

So, even against a Rays team that is starting a guy who is making his first MLB appearance of the year — and has to navigate a taxed bullpen — it is really hard to trust the Jays here. Kevin Cash and the Rays always find a way to manipulate their relievers to their advantage, so don’t be surprised if they play well here.

This is a stay away side for me.

Over/Under analysis

The total of 8.5 feels pretty spot on for this matchup. While the Rays should have several of their high-leverage relievers from a bullpen that ranks sixth in the MLB in ERA, it will be interesting to see how they navigate through the first five-to-six innings of this game against a strong Blue Jays lineup.

Even though Toronto’s offense can go through some cold spells, the team still ranks eighth in batting average, sixth in OPS, and fifth in wRC+ since coming out of the All-Star break.

Oh, and did we mention Jose Berrios was starting this game? The inconsistent wonder now has to take on a Tampa lineup that despite a ton of injuries has also gotten the job done in the post-All-Star break, ranking 12th in OPS and ninth in wRC+ in the second half.

The Rays were a problem for Berrios when they last met back in July. While they only plated two runs, they got to him for eight hits and two walks. 

So, while I have no official play here, with Berrios on the mound, and an always dangerous Jays’ lineup I would lean towards the Over. 

Rays vs Blue Jays game info

• Location: Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON
• Date: Monday, September 12, 2022
• First pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Sun, Sportsnet

Starting pitchers

Cooper Criswell (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Criswell makes his first Major League appearance of 2022 in this matchup. The right-hander has thrown 27 1-3 innings at Triple-A Durham this season, pitching to a 3.95 ERA, with an 0.95 WHIP and 22 strikeouts.

Jose Berrios (10-5, 5.23 ERA): The highs and lows of this Joes Berrios season just won’t stop. After throwing consecutive strong outings against the Yankees and Red Sox, the right-hander followed those up by surrendering six earned runs on 18 hits to the Cubs and Orioles.

Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Betting trend to know

The Blue Jays are 16-5 in their last 21 games when facing a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Blue Jays

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