Rays vs Astros Predictions, Picks, Odds: Tucker Keeps Crushing

Despite having both Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez back in the lineup, the Houston Astros (58-46) fell to the Tampa Bay Rays (63-43) 4-3 in Game 1 of a three-game clash Friday night.

While the Rays have been stumbling in the AL East standings and the Astros have been surging in the AL West, both teams remain in second in their respective divisions. The Rays are now 1.5 back of the Baltimore Orioles and the Astros, two games back of the Texas Rangers. 

This series should have serious ramifications in the AL Wild Card race, making Game 2 a must-watch.

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Astros on Saturday, July 29.

Rays vs Astros odds

Rays vs Astros predictions

The 2022 World Series champs are still fighting their way to the top of the AL West, and at this point, battling to keep pace with the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL Wild Card race, but they’re 8-5 since returning from the All-Star break.

In that span, Kyle Tucker has recorded 13 RBIs to give him 69 in 102 games this season. The Stros outfielder has been Houston’s most consistent threat at the plate in 2023, leading the team in RBIs, batting average (.304), home runs (18), and hits (112).

Heading into Game 2 with the Rays, Tucker is primed for an offensive explosion given the matchup he has with pitcher Taj Bradley.

Bradley, a rookie, primarily uses his fastball (43.9% of the time in 2023), a pitch that Tucker has been smoking this season, with a .359 average, .563 slugging percentage, and 15 run value.

Even if Bradley goes to the other top two pitches in his arsenal — cutter (27.8%), curveball (16.5%) — there’s an advantage for Tucker. Bradley is giving up a .324 average and .554 slugging percentage with his cutter this season while Tucker has a .556 slugging percentage against curveballs in 2023.

With Altuve back in the lineup batting lead-off for the Astronomicals, there should be plenty of opportunity for Tucker to rake in a run or two.

My best bet: Kyle Tucker Over 0.5 RBI (+195)

Rays vs Astros same-game parlay

Tucker Over 0.5 RBI (+195)
Over 8.5 runs (-110)
Astros Moneyline (-140)

+525 at bet365

There’s a lot on the line for both the Rays and Astros in this series, and both squads will be putting their trust in young pitchers in Game 2.

With Bradley on the mound for Tampa Bay, Houston is marching out fellow rookie Hunter Brown.

Unsurprisingly, neither pitcher has been a consistent force this season, which lends to the potential for a high-scoring outing. 

For Bradley, he’s given up 76 hits and 42 earned runs in 71 1/3 innings pitched this season and is tied for the most home runs given up by a Rays pitcher with 13. 

Brown has fared a little better with 104 hits and 49 earned runs in 105 1/3 innings pitched. Both pitchers have the potential to get shelled.

Now that Altuve is back in the lineup, the Astros should be able to recapture some of that World Series magic from last year. Manager Dusty Baker was excited to see the eight-time All-Star start Game 1 of the series against the Rays with a triple.

"That was great," said Baker. “That first pitch, that's vintage Altuve, and then the base hit to right on a tough pitch up and away, that's Altuve, too. When he starts doing that, the sky is the limit on what he can do."

When both of these teams are on, they’re two of the hardest-hitting squads in the majors. Both are Top 10 in home runs; the Rays are fourth with 151 and the Astros are 10th with 130.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rays vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Rays took Game 1 of the series thanks to a Yandy Diaz go-ahead sac fly in the ninth, as between -112 and -125 favorites at most books. Game 2 opened with Houston as heavy favorites, from anywhere between -130 to -148.

The line has moved slightly with Houston between -124 and -150, depending on the book. Most books have Tampa Bay hovering around +115 and +120.

Even with the Rays ahead of the Stros in the AL Wild Card race, they’ve been tripping over themselves throughout July with an abysmal 6-15 record, giving Houston the natural upper hand in Game 2.

The total opened at between 8 and 8.5 at most books and has settled in at 8.5 just about everywhere. 

Trend to know

The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 69 games (+6.55 Units / 6% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Astros

Rays vs Astros game info

Starting pitchers

Taj Bradley (5-6, 5.30 ERA): It’s been a tumultuous rookie season for the 22-year-old Bradley. He’s given up at least three earned runs in eight of his 15 starts and is rarely asked to pitch more than five innings. In his last five starts, he’s pitched 22 1/3 innings and given up 21 earned runs. Despite his inconsistencies, Bradley has shown flashes of promise (12 K/9) that should give Rays fans hope of a bright future. But that bright future will have to wait with a loaded Astros lineup licking at their chops to take the young starter to task.

Hunter Brown (6-7, 4.19 ERA): After proving he’s got the stuff in just seven regular-season appearances last season, the 24-year-old Brown has shown promise in his first full season in the big leagues. The Wayne State University product has gone at least six innings nine times this season and has had at least seven strikeouts in 11 of 19 starts. With that said, he’s struggled throughout July, giving up 14 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings with a whopping 24 hits. With the Rays’ volatility as of late, this is an opportunity for Brown to recapture his early-season form.

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