The Boston Red Sox offense has been rolling of late and have a decent matchup against Texas Rangers righty Dane Dunning on tap tonight.
Still, my Rangers vs. Red Sox predictions expect things to slow down a bit at Fenway Park.
See why the Under is the right call in my MLB picks on Wednesday, August 14th.
Rangers vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Under 9.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
I'm fading the recent trends toward the Over for the Boston Red Sox because this total is just too high, as I project 8.2 runs with two solid starters on the mound.
Tanner Houck takes the mound for Boston and draws a good matchup against a Texas Rangers offense that has struggled to replicate last year's success.
Houck is an elite ground-ball pitcher with a GB% putting him in the 93rd percentile of MLB. He's allowed seven earned runs in 33 innings when facing teams with a Top-10 ground-ball rate. His ERA slices nearly in half in these matchups.
From a run-scoring perspective, the Rangers have been below average, with 4.2 runs per game on the year. I expect that number to dip today as the offense has hit a high ground-ball clip on the season (eighth overall) and will struggle against a pitcher who has been so successful at inducing them.
On the other side is Dane Dunning. Fading a hot Red Sox offense with him on the mound is risky, but that is also why this total is creeping toward 10. There are also some positives in this matchup for him. Dunning has had a bumpy season, but he's maintained strong strikeout and whiff rates.
Boston has been one of the most strikeout-prone teams in the league this season, ranking just below the Seattle Mariners among AL lineups.
While this won't be completely sweat-free, the best value is on the Under. Both pitchers should work through the orders with decent success and go deep into the game to set their bullpens up later.
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Rangers vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 9.5
Tanner Houck Over 17.5 outs
We're pairing today's best bet with Houck to explore this matchup in-depth, and the reasoning follows the same logic as our best bet.
In five matchups against teams hitting grounders at a massive clip, he's gone seven innings four times while completing just five in the outlier.
The one team that forced a quick exit for Houck was the Tampa Bay Rays. That's a divisional foe with great familiarity when facing Houck. Texas doesn't have that luxury.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Red Sox odds
Rangers vs Red Sox live odds
Rangers vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Texas +1.5 (-145) | Boston -1.5 (+120)
- Moneyline: Texas +140 | Boston -165
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 (-110) | Under 9.5 (-110)
Rangers vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- Boston has won seven of the last 10 meetings with Texas.
- The Rangers have struggled lately with three wins in their last seven games, losing bettors nearly four units in the process.
- The Rangers have dropped nearly 20 cents since its opening price dropped.
Rangers vs Red Sox trend
The Texas Rangers have not hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in any of their last 8 games (-10.55 Units / -100% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Red Sox.
Rangers vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 8-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Southwest, NESN |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Dane Dunning (4-7, 4.77 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Tanner Houck (8-8, 3.02 ERA) |
Rangers vs Red Sox latest injuries
Rangers vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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