Rangers vs Astros Predictions, Picks, Odds: Texas Puts Squeeze on Valdez at Minute Maid Park

The Texas Rangers arrive in Houston on the verge of a massive collapse. That's because they've seen a 2-0 ALCS lead vanish before their eyes and now sit on the brink of elimination against the Houston Astros. 

The Rangers had the lead late in Game 5, and then they lost it. Jose Altuve hit a three-run home run in the ninth inning to get the Astros a one-run lead, and just like that, this series was flipped on its head.

Now, Texas faces the possibility of losing four straight after earning a 2-0 series lead in the MLB playoff predictions, and the Astros see a glowing opportunity to defend their World Series odds crown.

Can the Rangers pick themselves up off the mat? What's the best bet in this matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions as we analyze the MLB odds for Sunday, October 22.

Rangers vs Astros odds

Rangers vs Astros Game 6 odds

Rangers vs Astros series odds

Team
Rangers	+350	+385	+350	+380	+375
Astros	-450	-500	-450	-480	-500

Rangers vs Astros predictions

Is this the moment things will be different for Astros pitcher Framber Valdez? He's been dreadful this postseason, and now he's pitching with an opportunity to send his team to the World Series. 

"I think our team is built to be able to handle those types of emotions," Valdez said through his team interpreter. "I think they'll be able to calm down, play the game that we know how to play, and feel no pressure because of that."

While his team may be able to do that, can Valdez? 

This season featured Valdez's second-highest expected ERA and actual ERA in his career. He's done little to dispel concerns arising from his regular season performance in the postseason. That's because, in two starts, he's failed to last over four innings.

Against the Minnesota Twins, he gave up five earned runs. Earlier in this series against the Rangers, he barely got into the second inning before being pulled after surrendering four earned runs on seven hits. I'm fading him again for my best bet, as I see no reason not to. The best way to do that is to take the Under on his Outs at 14.5.

A bet on the Under is a bet on what the data on Valdez has told us. My projections priced this at 13.5, giving us a full out of value. This matchup against the Rangers is a tough one for Valdez.

Texas has found ways to drive up pitch counts against left-handed pitchers, even if they have only sometimes been productive. Since the start of September, they have been fifth in walk rate and sixth in walk-to-strikeout rate. These are productive at-bats that can drive up pitch counts and reduce the length of a starting pitcher. This is a problem for Valdez because he could only throw about 35% of his pitches for strikes in his most recent start against this Rangers squad.

You're going to see a lot of breaking balls from Valdez, with the sinker and the curveball being used the most, and that's great news for Texas. The Rangers have the fourth-highest BABIP in the league against breaking balls. They excel against those pitches in particular, too.

The Texas lineup will feature five players above .300 against the sinker. In particular, a combination of players at the top of the lineup, like Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Evan Carter, hit well. This is a lethal tandem, and it should enable them to string together some hits that maximize the pressure on Valdez. 

In this spot, we have to listen to what past performances have told us. Valdez has struggled most of this postseason and faces a formidable lineup that will be desperate to keep their season alive. It's hard for me to see Valdez having much success in this spot when he's struggled mightily in much less pressurized situations in 2023.

My best bet: Framber Valdez Under 14.5 outs (-105 at bet365)

Rangers vs Astros same-game parlay

Framber Valdez Under 14.5 outs

Corey Seager Over 1.5 total bases

Marcus Semien Over 1.5 total bases

+550 at bet365

I'm picking on Valdez with this highly correlated same-game parlay. We're pairing two batters with our best bet.

The first of those is Seager Over 1.5 total bases. He's been electric this postseason, and he has a great matchup today. Seager leads the Rangers in hard-hit rate against the sinker. He should see a ton of those today, which gives us some excellent value.

The last leg is Semien to go Over 1.5 total bases. Semien has been quiet lately, making this even more appealing. Add the fact that he has the highest batting average and run value against the sinker on the Rangers roster, and I have to have it in here.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rangers vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I will lean towards Texas to force a Game 7 here and have placed a unit on it at +100 over at DraftKings. Better numbers can be found, but I'd play it to -110. I make Texas a -115 favorite here, and it's because it has a decisive pitching advantage.

I've picked on Valdez enough in this article, but I haven't discussed the Rangers starter yet. Nathan Eovaldi hasn't had a stellar postseason, but he's been good enough. That's more than you can say about Valdez.

If Eovaldi can deliver a performance similar to the first time he faced the Astros in the series, I suspect that's good enough for the Rangers. He allowed three earned runs, but he posted a six-inning performance. Length will be critical tonight for him, as the Rangers' bullpen hasn't had the best postseason.

I like the Over this evening as well. It's pretty self-explanatory as to why, too.

Both teams are familiar with the other starting pitcher and have had some excellent historical success. I'll aim for a scoreless first inning, then grab the live Over at an entire run cheaper than the pregame number.

We've grown accustomed to high-scoring affairs between these two teams, with seven of the last ten meetings going Over. That's also been a solid postseason trend, with three straight meetings going Over.

Trend to know

The Rangers have hit the Over in 28 of their last 47 games (+10.35 Units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Astros

Rangers vs Astros game info

Starting pitchers

Nathan Eovaldi (3-0, 2.29 ERA): Eovaldi's postseason numbers indicate what he's been through much of the season. That's a steady force who gives his team a chance to win each time he steps on the mound. The issue for Eovaldi, from time to time, can be a hard-hit ball. He ranks in the Bottom 30% of baseball in that category. However, he makes up for it with an elite ground ball rate, getting them at around 47% of the time. He'll come into this one off a six-inning, three-earned run performance against this Astros team.

Framber Valdez (0-2, 11.57 ERA): It's not been a good postseason for Valdez, there's just no other way to slice it. He's failed to last over four innings and either of his two starts, while his appearances have given his team little chance to win games. What's been a big issue for him this postseason is what's been an issue for him in the regular season — the hard-hit ball. He enters this matchup in the Bottom 10% of two critical categories; average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. The last time he faced the Rangers, they took advantage with a home run and four earned runs before he could finish the third inning.

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