The MLB season is coming to a close, so let's take advantage of it with some winners in the player prop market. With 10 games on the schedule, there is no shortage of MLB betting value.
Tonight, we turn to an unlikely source for strikeouts when the Brewers host the Marlins, while the Rangers could still be a problem for Marco Gonzales and the Mariners, and highlight at least one thing Rockies fans can cheer for down the stretch.
Here are my best MLB player prop bets for Thursday, September 29.
MLB props for September 29
Picks made on 9/29/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
The Lau won
The Marlins’ offense has lived up to its Bottom Feeders moniker in the second half of the season. Miami's 2.9 runs per game post-All-Star break is the worst in MLB, and it has been southpaws who have caused them the most problems.
The Marlins ranked dead last in batting average (.209), OPS (.600), and wRC+ (72) when digging in against left-handed pitchers this season. Most importantly for this prop, they also have the highest strikeout rate in baseball against lefties, getting punched out 27.6% of the time.
Lauer actually began the season striking out batters left and right before a midseason-lull. That included a May 14 matchup against the Marlins where he punched out seven batters. Those numbers have ticked up again and as Lauer has struck out a batter an inning so far this month.
Now, sportsbooks obviously know about the Marlins' flaws and have set Lauer's strikeout total at a bit of an inflated number of 5.5m but in this matchup, at plus-money, it's worth a shot.
Eric Lauer Prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (+114)
Texas-sized strike zone
The Seattle Mariners are getting oh, so close to clinching their first postseason berth since 2001, but you can bet the Rangers aren't going to make it easy for them. Particularly since they get to hit against Marco Gonzales tonight.
The Mariners' excellent rotation has been a big reason for their potential return to the playoffs, but Gonzales hasn't really been excellent so much as average. The lefty is pitching to a 4.54 expected ERA and surrendering a .266 expected batting average to opponents.
One of Gonzales' other issues is that he doesn't strike out a ton of batters and pitches to a ton of contact. In fact, he ranks in the Bottom 1% of the league in K-rate. That hasn't played well against the Rangers.
Gonzales has already made five starts against Texas this season, pitching to 5.16 ERA while surrendering a .294 batting average and a .805 OPS. He has allowed six or more hits three times in those five games and has given up 35 hits in 29 2-3 innings. So, already, the Over 5.5 on his hits allowed prop looks like a solid bet.
Another factor in our favor here is that the Mariners tend to give Gonzales a long leash and let him work through his issues if he is having any because, despite the mediocre numbers, he is still averaging nearly six innings per start.
Gonzales has gone Over 5.5 hits allowed seven times in his 11 starts in the second half, which includes giving up nine hits to the Rangers in five innings on August 13. Throw in the even money value, and this bet is too good to pass up.
Marco Gonzales Prop: Over 5.5 hits allowed (+100)
Yonathan Daza has been one of the few bright spots for the Colorado Rockies in what has been another disappointing season, and the Rockies centerfielder continues to play well as the season winds down.
Daza is hitting .301 with a .735 OPS for the season but he has upped that to .310 and .824 over 18 games in the month of September. That includes nine multi-hit games and eight extra-base hits.
Tonight, Daza gets an interesting matchup against San Francisco Giants starter Carlos Rodon. The lefty started the season strong but he cooled off a bit down the stretch, pitching to a 4.01 ERA over his last five starts. It's a small sample size, but Daza is 2-5 in his career against Rodon.
On top of that, Rodon has pitched five innings or fewer three times over that five-game stretch. Another short outing could mean extra work for a San Francisco bullpen that ranks 18th in MLB in ERA and 26th in opponent batting average.
With Daza hitting .347 against lefties and cashing the Over on his total bases 11 times in 18 games this month, getting +130 on the Over is a good value tonight.
Yonathan Daza Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+130)
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