It’s Hump Day! And what better way to get over that hump than with some fun and exciting MLB player prop bets?
Nothing is more fun than watching Aaron Judge bash baseballs right now. But what’s the best way to bet the Yankees' uber-popular superstar in tonight’s matchup against the Orioles? Meanwhile, the Red Sox’s third baseman has some stunning numbers against Angels starter and former teammate Tyler Anderson. And finally, things are getting uglier by the day for the A’s. That shouldn’t change tonight vs. the Mariners.
I dig through the MLB odds and bring you my favorite player props for Wednesday, May 24.
MLB props for May 24
Picks made on 5/24/2023 at 2:45 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Prop bet #1: Judge executes vs. O's
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before — Aaron Judge is on a heater. The New York Yankees outfielder has been pretty solid all season, but he’s been really bashing the ball in May, and I’m betting that won’t change in tonight’s matchup vs. the Baltimore Orioles.
Judge is doing a fantastic job of following up on a historic campaign in 2022. He leads the American League in home runs and OPS, but he has been really locked in this month. The Yankees slugger is hitting .367 with a 1.402 OPS and eight home runs in 13 games, and tonight he gets a juicy matchup against O’s starter Tyler Wells.
Wells has been one of the Orioles' better starters this season, pitching to a 3.84 expected ERA. But that hasn’t been the case against the Yankees, and definitely not the case against Judge.
Judge is an impressive 8-for-17 (.471) in his career vs. Wells, which includes a double and three dingers. That’s good for a crazy 1.098 expected slugging percentage.
Now, the Over on Judge’s 1.5 total bases is juiced to the -120 range, which saps away some of the value for me. Instead, I’m looking at his hits milestone. Judge has recorded five multi-hit games over his last 12 overall. So, at +220, there appears to be value for him to have another multi-knock game tonight.
The last time Judge faced off vs. Wells was back on April 9. He went 3-for-4 in that game with two home runs. Against Wells specifically, he went 2-for-3 with a single and one of those dingers.
With the baseball looking the size of a melon to Judge right now, I really like the odds for him to get at least a couple of hits in this matchup.
Aaron Judge prop: 2+ hits (+220)
Prop bet #2: Seeing red
Familiar foes face off when the Boston Red Sox and the Los Angeles Angels continue their series in L.A. tonight. Despite being on new squads this year after being teammates on the Dodgers last season, Red Sox third baseman Justin Turner and Angels starter Tyler Anderson have seen plenty of each other over the years. And to put it nicely, Turner has definitely had Anderson’s number.
Turner and Anderson have faced off a massive 42 times over the course of their careers, and the Red Sox’s third baseman is an incredible 18-for-36 (.500) with five doubles, three home runs, and five walks in this matchup. That’s good for a .627 expected slugging percentage. And maybe most impressive of all, Turner has struck out just twice in those 42 plate appearances.
As for this season, Turner has been swinging the bat pretty well, hitting .267 with a .767 OPS. And prior to a mini-slump during this current road trip (1-for-8), Turner has hit .321 with a .935 OPS over 15 games in the month of May.
Meanwhile, Anderson’s stint with the other L.A. team has been mediocre at best. The lefty is pitching to a 5.15 expected ERA and surrendering a .263 expected batting average to opponents. And while he has never been a big strikeout guy, his 13.7% K-rate is the lowest of his career.
Right-handed hitters have done most of the damage, getting to Anderson for a .298 batting average and a .899 OPS. With Turner hitting .291 vs. southpaws this season, I’m backing him to go Over 1.5 total bases at even money.
Justin Turner prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Prop bet #3: No papering over Waldichuk's performance
Things are getting uglier by the day for the Oakland Athletics. Heading into Wednesday’s action, they are 10-40 with a -178 run differential. That is more than 100 runs worse than the next closest team.
Run prevention is the A’s biggest problem. Their 358 runs allowed is 93 more than the Kansas City Royals, who have allowed the second most. And that trend will likely continue tonight vs. the Seattle Mariners.
The Mariners haven’t been a great hitting team this season, but they’ll have a chance to remedy that against the A’s and starter Ken Waldichuk. The 25-year-old left-hander looks like he’s been thrown to the wolves. Waldichuk is pitching to a 6.25 expected ERA while surrendering a .267 expected batting average and a .511 expected slugging percentage to opponents this season.
The southpaw also doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, while having a walk rate that is in the 10th percentile in the MLB.
But the A’s don’t seem to care about that much. They just need innings. So despite the ugly numbers, Waldichuk is still averaging just over five innings per start this season. That means plenty of opportunities for the Mariners to put up some runs early on in this one.
To make matters worse, Seattle has also started to heat up at the plate lately. They rank 16th in batting average, 14th in OPS, and eighth in wRC+ over their last eight games. That’s more than good enough to take care of business vs. the A’s.
Waldichuk has surrendered three or more earned runs in eight of his nine starts this season. I don’t expect that to change tonight.
Ken Waldichuk prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (-130)