Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Kershaw Keeps Coors Cold

Running Up That Hill

The San Diego Padres' struggles at the plate have been well documented this year, and on Tuesday they’ll have one hell of a mountain to climb to change that narrative, a Dick Mountain that is.

The Padres will face off against the ageless wonder himself, Rich Hill, and the Pittsburgh Pirates, when the two National League teams square off in the opener of their three-game set at PNC Park.

It’s kind of incredible that the 43-year-old Hill is still an effective starting pitcher at this point in his career, but the southpaw has given the Buccos some valuable innings this season — to the point where Hill’s name has been floated in trade rumors.

Hill is pitching to a 4.34 ERA this season with a solid 4.35 FIP to back that up. The veteran lefty has also had a very good month of June. Hill hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in each of his four starts this month, good for a 3.33 ERA while limiting opponents to a .207 batting average.

On top of that, he’s been efficient. Hill faces an average of 24 hitters and 5.53 innings per game. That has allowed him to put up some decent strikeout numbers. Despite a modest nine strikeouts per nine innings over his last 12 starts, his length has allowed him to continuously go over pedestrian strikeout totals.

He’s got another one tonight sitting at 4.5 and the matchup against the Padres bodes well for him to rack up the Ks. That’s because the Padres are still one of the most inconsistent hitting teams in baseball. San Diego ranks 20^th in runs per game and 24^th in batting average.

The Padres are also an average team when it comes to strikeout rate vs. left-handed pitchers, getting punched out 22.1% of the time.

Hill has recorded five or more strikeouts in nine of his last 12 starts. Dick Mountain’s length and the Padres' inconsistency will help him make it 10 of 13.

Rich Hill prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (+106)

Oh-fer

Shohei Ohtani is pretty good at this baseball thing. Unfortunately, he’s so good that it can sometimes be hard to find betting value when it comes to his player prop markets. So, sometimes you just have to get a little creative.

Ohtani has been an absolute monster at the dish this month, but let’s not take away from what he’s done on the mound. The right-hander is pitching to a 3.33 expected ERA while limiting opponents to a .195 expected batting average and striking out a ridiculous 32.6% of the batters he’s faced. 

Those latter two number rank in the 90th percentile or better and work out to a Major League-best 5.7 hits per nine innings and an AL-best 11.8 strikeouts per nine.

All that to say, basically, he’s going to be a tough matchup for the visiting Chicago White Sox tonight, particularly for Eloy Jimenez.

The Pale Hose outfielder is certainly known as a streaky hitter. Jiminez is hitting .247 for the season with a .736 OPS, but he's hitless with four strikeouts over his last three games, and those strikeouts could be a problem against Ohtani. 

Jimenez currently has a big hole in his swing. He ranks in the Bottom 6% or worse in both whiff and chase rate and is striking out 25.5% of the time this season. 

I’m betting Ohtani gets the better of Jimenez tonight before handing the ball off to the Angels' best relievers, resulting in another 0-fer night at the dish.

Eloy Jimenez prop: Under 0.5 hits (+150)

Clay slays

Everyone and their mother knows about the Colorado Rockies and their crazy home-road splits. But this year, their splits between left-handers and right-handers are even more drastic. And tonight they go against one of the GOAT southpaws in the Los Angeles Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw.

The Rockies' numbers against lefties are bad. Like, really bad. Colorado ranks 24th in batting average, 28th in OPS, and dead last in wRC+. They also have the fourth-highest strikeout rate vs. left-handed pitchers. So, going against a version of Kershaw, who is a groove, could prove difficult.

Kershaw has had an interesting season to this point. He came flying out of the gates before slumping a bit in May. But he quickly put that behind him in June. The former MVP is pitching to a 1.33 ERA, limiting opponents to a .202 batting average while striking out 28 batters in 27 innings of work over four starts this month.

Overall, Kershaw is pitching to a 3.51 expected ERA and is holding opponents to a .230 expected batting average while ranking in the 81st percentile in strikeout rate. He’s also been effective at getting through innings for the Dodgers.

The veteran left-hander is facing an average of 24.29 batters and averaging nearly six innings per start this season. In June, he has thrown no fewer than 96 pitches in a start and completed at least six innings in four straight starts. He’s gone Over 17.5 outs in 11 of his 15 starts. Yes, the Rockies are better at home, but not good enough to result in a short outing for Kershaw.

Clayton Kershaw prop: Over 17.5 outs recorded (-110)