We've got a packed Saturday on the MLB betting board with every team taking to the diamond. With thousands of MLB player props available, we dig through all the numbers to find you the best betting lines.
Today, we're zeroing in on forgotten Arizona starter Merrill Kelly, exciting Texas outfielder Adolis Garcia, and also backing a reliable hitter toiling in obscurity on a losing team. Here are my best free MLB picks for June 24.
MLB props for June 24
- Kelly Over 5.5 Ks
- Garcia Over 1.5 TB
- McMahon Over 1.5 TB
Picks made on June 24 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Kelly's a hero
Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Merrill Kelly has been one of the best pitchers in the NL this year, going 9-3 with a 2.90 ERA and a .194 OBA through 15 starts. Kelly is coming off a seven-strikeout performance against the Brewers and will face the San Francisco Giants this afternoon.
The O/U on Kelly's strikeouts total is as low as 5.5. He has gone Over that number in seven of nine starts since the beginning of May and is averaging 7.3 punchouts per start during that span.
Kelly doesn't have overpowering velocity but has good movement on his pitches and his chase rate ranks in the Top 10th percentile. With the Giants striking out at the fourth-highest rate in the majors, take the Over on Kelly's strikeouts today.
Merrill Kelly prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-118)
Prop bet #2: Garcia goes wild
Adolis Garcia has been mashing for the Texas Rangers this year and is a big reason why they are atop the AL West. The hard-hitting outfielder leads the team in home runs with 17 and is tied for 15th in the majors with 140 total bases.
The 30-year-old clubbed a total of 58 homers over the last two years and has become even better this season as he ranks in the Top 10th percentile in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate.
Garcia hit a dinger last night and returns to Yankee Stadium today to face off against starting pitcher Luis Severino. Severino has struggled this month, posting a 9.16 ERA with an OBA of .349 across four starts. The right-hander is currently in the Bottom 20th percentile in hard-hit rate while sitting in the Bottom 10th percentile in barrel rate.
The O/U on Garcia's total bases is set at 1.5 with the Over paying out at plus money. With most online models projecting him to rack up 3.0 total bases today, bet the Over.
Adolis Garcia prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+130)
Prop bet #3: McMahon's the man at Coors
Los Angeles Angels right-hander Griffin Canning returned to the mound this spring after missing 20 months with a back injury. He has been solid in his comeback, pitching to a 4.40 ERA through 11 starts, but he takes the hill at Coors Field today, which is a tough task for any pitcher.
Canning is in the Bottom 20th percentile in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. That combined with his above-average fly ball rate could spell trouble in Denver's thin air.
The Rockies have struggled at the dish this year but one player that has produced is third baseman Ryan McMahon. McMahon is slashing .265/.349/.491 with his slugging percentage ticking up to .544 for June.
The left-hander also rakes against righties like Canning to the tune of a .540 slugging percentage. McMahon ranks in the Top 15th percentile in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate and should be able to get to Canning or an Angels reliever tonight.
Ryan McMahon prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+105 at BetMGM)
Not intended for use in MA.
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