Today’s MLB slate is bringing plenty of heat, with no shortage of MLB player props value. A couple of the league’s top sluggers find themselves in spots I absolutely love, including Ketel Marte.
Check out my favorite MLB picks for Thursday, July 9.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Kyle Schwarber |
Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI | -122 |
| Bryce Harper |
Over 1.5 total bases | -110 |
 Ketel Marte |
Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI | +142 |
Kyle Schwarber Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI (-122)
People forget a home run cashes this play, and today Kyle Schwarber’s home run price is sitting at +150. Gross.
The Philadelphia Phillies slugger finds himself with an elite rating on Batters-Box this evening. Across 263 elite ratings over the last three seasons, the big fella has left the yard 27.76% of the time while going over this prop 42.59% of the time.
Schwarber draws Cincinnati Reds right-hander Brady Singer, who owns one of the worst pitcher ratings on the slate. Left-handed hitters have given Singer plenty of trouble, especially recently. Over his last 30 left-handed hitters faced, they are posting a .320 xBA, .680 xSLG, and .344 xwOBA.
On top of that, they are generating a 41.2% hard-hit rate and 17.6% barrel rate.
Over his last 60 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, Schwarber is slashing .320 BA, .560 SLG, .977 OPS, and .240 ISO. Of course, the big fella is also generating a monster 74.5% hard-hit rate during that span.
Yes, he homered last night. Do not be scared. If you don't want to pay the juice, sprinkle the double and home run markets instead.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CINR, NBCSP
Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases (-110)
We already know Singer has struggled against left-handed bats this season, so let's get into why we are backing both Schwarber and Bryce Harper on back-to-back days.
For starters, the Phillies superstar owns one of the highest matchup ratings on the day over at Batters-Box, where he has 100% arsenal coverage against Singer's pitch mix. Similar to Schwarber, Harper has been absolutely crushing right-handed pitching over his last 60 at-bats, posting a .320 BA, .740 SLG, 1.140 OPS, and .420 ISO.
He is also generating a 61.5% hard-hit rate and 12.8% barrel rate during that span.
I am once again very high on the Phillies today, and hopefully they come through. I would play this prop up to -120.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CINR, NBCSP
Ketel Marte Over 2.5 hits + runs + RBI (+142)
This play has me pretty giddy, as I am absolutely loving the value on Ketel Marte’s hits + runs + RBI prop this evening.
The Arizona Diamondbacks star enters today with an elite rating on Batters-Box, and in 59 elite ratings away from home over the last three seasons, he has cleared this prop nearly 50% of the time.
Marte draws San Diego Padres right-hander Griffin Canning, whom he has just 42.2% arsenal coverage against. However, when looking at his expected numbers against some of these pitches, Marte should be just fine.
I am willing to trust the expected stats and believe they point toward positive progression against Canning’s slider and changeup offerings.
Over his last 60 at-bats against right-handed pitching, the Arizona slugger owns a .367 OBP, .574 SLG, .941 OPS, and .278 ISO, while generating a 46.9% hard-hit rate and 10.2% barrel rate.
Canning has struggled against left-handed bats this season. Over his last 60 left-handed hitters faced, they are generating a 54% hard-hit rate, 13% barrel rate, and 59% elevation rate. Those lefties also own a .375 xBA, .671 xSLG, and .389 xwOBA, while Canning carries a 5.93 expected ERA against them.
I think the value is simply too good to pass up here. I love this price and would take it down to +130.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: SDPA, ARID
- Prop picks: 282-520, -15.5 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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