Lately, Colorado Rockies starter Austin Gomber has been so bad at pitching that oddsmakers now have several members of the Arizona Diamondbacks with total bases props listed at a rare 2.5 for today’s matchup. But fear not, there is a D-back who still has value in this matchup.
I'll also take a look at the red-hot Jose Altuve, who now goes up against an old foe in Jesus Luzardo when the Houston Astros take on the Miami Marlins. Plus, could Texas Rangers starter Jon Gray be in for some regression when he faces the Los Angeles Angels?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best MLB player prop picks below.
MLB props for August 16
- Moreno Over 1.5 TB
- Altuve Over 1.5 TB
- Gray Under 17.5 outs
Picks made on August 16 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Mighty Mite
Everyone knows how bad Colorado Rockies starter Austin Gomber has been by now. The left-hander is pitching to a 5.57 expected ERA while surrendering a .290 expected batting average and a .494 expected slugging percentage to opponents. He is also striking out just 15% of batters faced. All of those numbers rank in the Bottom 10% among MLB pitchers.
While oddsmakers have since adjusted and elevated props like hits allowed and earned runs, Arizona Diamondbacks catcher Gabriel Moreno still holds plenty of value in this matinee affair at Coors Field.
Moreno is having a solid first full big league season, hitting .268 for the season. The 23-year-old backstop also loves facing southpaws and owns a .361 average with a .926 OPS when digging in against lefties this year.
While this will be just Moreno's fourth game since returning from a shoulder injury, today's matchup with Gomber should help him find his rhythm. "Mighty Mite" is 2-2 in his career vs. the Rockies starter — good for a .492 xSLG.
And once Gomber is out of this game, he’ll hand the ball to a Rockies bullpen that ranks 25th in xFIP. I really like Moreno’s chances of cashing the Over on his total bases on Wednesday.
Gabriel Moreno prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Prop bet #2: En Fuego
Jose Altuve finally looks like his best self once again. The Houston Astros second baseman is tearing the cover off the ball and he’s going to have a great opportunity to keep that going when they take on the Miami Marlins on Wednesday night.
Altuve has basically been on fire since the end of June. The Astros' second baseman is hitting .455 with a 1.236 OPS over his last 17 games and has multi-hit games in five of his last seven.
Tonight, Altuve will dig in against Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo. The Marlins lefty is having a solid season but has been having some struggles in the second half. Luzardo is pitching to a 6.66 ERA and is surrendering a .911 OPS over five starts since coming out of the All-Star break.
Not only does Altuve boast a .906 OPS when facing left-handed pitchers, but the Houston star is 5-8 with a home run in his career vs. Luzardo. That works out to a .404 expected batting average and a .872 expected slugging percentage.
I’m backing Altuve to go Over his total bases prop of 1.5 — a number he has eclipsed in seven of his last 11 games overall.
Jose Altuve prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+115)
Prop bet #3: Gray Matter
The Los Angeles Angels went for it at the trade deadline and it blew up in their face spectacularly. The Halos are now three games below .500 and eight games out of a Wild Card spot heading into tonight’s matchup with the American League West-leading Texas Rangers.
If the Angels want to make one last push, there’s no time like the present. Tonight, they’ll face off against Rangers’ right-hander Jon Gray. I’m still in the boat that Gray is overperforming this season and is due for some regression in the immediate future.
Despite a 3.65 ERA, Gray’s expected ERA sits at 4.23 as he is giving up a .258 expected batting average to opponents. He also doesn’t strike out a ton of batters and averages just 84.8 pitches per start.
And for all the Angels’ faults, they still handle right-handed pitchers pretty well. The Halos rank seventh in both OPS and wRC+ vs. righties this season. They’ve also had success vs. Gray in the past, as current Angels possess a .333 xBA and a .629 xSLG against Gray during their careers.
All this adds up to a shorter outing for the Rangers right-hander tonight. Gray's outs-recorded prop is set at 17.5 tonight and he’s fallen below that number in three of his last four starts. With a tough matchup, I like him to make that four of five.
Jon Gray prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (-115)
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