Aaron Judge is the best hitter in the world and being able to get the Over 1.5 on his total bases prop at close to a pick'em price is great value. Especially when playing against a team like the Twins that has poor pitching.
The Yankees superstar headlines my three favorite MLB player props for Wednesday, September 17.
Best MLB player props today
Waldrep Over 15.5 outs (-130)
deGrom Over 5.5 strikeouts (-150)
Judge Over 1.5 total bases (-105)
Our 3 best MLB player props for Wednesday, September 17
Take a look at our best bets and expert analysis below.
Prop #1: Hurston Waldrep Over 15.5 outs
Hurston Waldrep is coming off his worst performance of the year, surrendering eight runs to the Astros. The 23-year-old had been sensational before that, pitching to a 1.33 ERA with an OBA of .191 through his first seven starts.
Waldrep came into this season as the Atlanta Braves' No. 2 prospect according to Prospects1500. He has electric stuff, which includes a heater that averages 96 mph and a dominant splitter.
Waldrep should bounce back against a brutal Washington Nationals offense ranking 25th in the majors in OPS (.669) over the last 30 days. There will also be an 11 mph breeze blowing toward the infield at Nationals Park.
With Waldrep logging more than 15.5 outs in six of eight starts this year, back him to eclipse that number today with your MLB picks.
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FanDuel Sports Network South | MASN
Prop #2: Jacob deGrom Over 5.5 strikeouts
The Texas Rangers send ace Jacob deGrom to the hill for tonight's clash with the Houston Astros. The righty has pitched to a 2.82 ERA and ranks second in the majors with a 0.92 WHIP through 162 2/3 innings.
DeGrom has logged at least six strikeouts in 12 of his last 16 starts. That includes a pair of outings against the Astros where he fanned a total of 16 batters across 11 1/3 innings.
The two-time NL Cy Young winner is in the 80th percentile in strikeout and whiff rates, while ranking in the 90th percentile in chase rate. The Astros are second-last in the majors in chase rate, and that poor plate discipline should lead to deGrom going Over his strikeouts prop tonight.
- Time: 8:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Space City Home Network | Victory+
Prop #3: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases
Minnesota Twins SP Taj Bradley has a 4.88 ERA through 26 starts and has pitched to a 6.33 ERA since being acquired on July 31. Meanwhile, their bullpen is 26th in the majors in WHIP (1.42) and 29th in OBA (.267).
That's bad news with the New York Yankees and Aaron Judge coming to town. Judge leads the majors with a .676 slugging percentage, which is a whopping 65 points higher than second-place Shohei Ohtani.
The AL MVP odds favorite has been slightly more productive on the road and has been hitting even better this month, where he's slashing .349/.525/.698. This is a five-star play according to THE BAT X, which is projecting 2.5 total bases for Judge.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Amazon Prime Video
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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