The opening day of the MLB wild card round is a baseball junkies dream. With four consecutive games throughout the day, including an epic matchup between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox.
That also means there are MLB player props to bet on all day long. I’ve found my favorite MLB pick for each of the four games on Tuesday, September 30.
Best MLB player props today
| Player |  |
|---|---|
 Skubal u7.5 strikeouts |
+105 |
 Machado o0.5 RBI |
+135 |
 Bregman o1.5 hits, runs, and RBI |
+105 |
 Hernandez u0.5 hits |
+140 |
Our 4 best Wild Card MLB player props for Tuesday, September 30
Take a look at our best bets and expert analysis below.
Prop #1: Tarik Skubal Under 7.5 strikeouts
My immediate thought for Game 1 of this American League wild card matchup between the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers was Tarik Skubal Under 18.5 outs.
Not only has the Tigers’ ace looked rattled lately, but longer postseason appearances are more of a rarity in this day and age. Particularly in a short three-game wild-card series.
But let’s focus on Skubal’s pitching for the moment. The left-hander is still the favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award, and deservedly so. But you can tell the pressure of the Tigers’ collapse in the Central has been weighing on him.
Skubal’s ERA sits at 3.52 with a 4.28 FIP over his last three starts, two of which were against this Guardians, and he probably won’t be happy to see them again on Tuesday afternoon.
Cleveland has done a good job of working counts and making him throw a lot of pitches. Which is just another way Skubal could have an abbreviated outing.
On top of that, the Guardians have lowered their strikeout rate since the start of September, ranking 12th during that period.
Bullpens can get going very quickly in these shortened series, as teams can’t afford to let games slip away. At plus money, Skubal to stay Under 7.5 strikeouts, a number he’s played below in five of his last nine starts looks like a great bet to start the day’s wild card action.
- Time: 1:08 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
Prop #2: Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBI
In the MLB postseason, your stars have to be your stars if you hope to have a long playoff run. Luckily, the San Diego Padres have a guy up to the task in third baseman Manny Machado.
Machado is coming off another impressive season in which he hit .275 with 27 home runs and drove in 95 runs, and is one of the most experienced players in the playoffs, logging 48 postseason games during his career.
The seven-time All-Star also seemed to pull himself out of his late-season slump just in time for the playoffs. Machado finished the year hitting .304 with a .926 OPS, including four home runs and 11 RBIs over the Padres' final 12 games of the regular season.
Machado also has solid numbers against Chicago Cubs Game 1 starter Matt Boyd. The San Diego slugger is 5-for-13 in his career vs. Boyd with two doubles.
The Cubs’ lefty also stumbled a bit down the stretch, pitching to a 6.08 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP over his last seven starts of the season.
I like Machado’s bat to do the talking in Game 1 and am betting him to drive in a run at solid plus money.
- Time: 3:08 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ABC
Prop #3: Alex Bregman Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBI
The main event of this opening wild-card day takes place in the Bronx, where the greatest rivalry in sports writes another chapter of its incredible history, as the New York Yankees host the Boston Red Sox.
And we’ve got one hell of a pitching matchup in Game 1 as Garrett Crochet toes the rubber against Max Fried in a southpaw showdown.
Without going into a crazy breakdown, I think Crochet has the edge. The strikeout numbers, especially against some key Yanks, are eye-popping.
While Fried has been solid, there are some cracks in the armor. Fried’s expected ERA sits at 3.39, and his strikeout rate is just around league average.
That has me looking at a hitter with a ton of postseason experience for the BoSox – third baseman Alex Bregman.
Bregman had a solid first year in Boston, hitting .273 with an .821 OPS, including 18-home runs and 62 RBI. He also mashes lefties for a .319 average and an .855 OPS, and Fried is no exception to that.
The Red Sox’s slugger is 5-for-13 (.385) with a home run in his career vs. Fried. I like Bregman’s postseason experience to pay off on Tuesday night, and getting Over 1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBI looks like a steal in this matchup.
- Time: 6:08 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
Prop #4: Teoscar Hernandez Under 0.5 Hits
There are some great pitching matchups on this first day of the 2025 MLB postseason, but none might be better than what we get in Tuesday night’s finale, where the Cincinnati Reds and Hunter Greene are set to take on Blake Snell and the reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers.
Snell is a dog who thrives in the playoff atmosphere, while Greene is making his postseason debut.
But if there’s anyone who’s ready for the big stage, it’s Greene. The fireballer who averages 99 mph with his fastball finished the season ranked in the 86th percentile in expected ERA and the 93rd in strikeout rate. And he has given several of these Dodgers hitters fits in the past. Including Shohei Ohtani.
However, today I’m going to focus on Teoscar Hernandez. If the Dodgers' unheralded slugger gets going, he can be the difference in helping this team get back to the World Series.
Unfortunately for him, he’s having a tough second half. Hernandez has a .234 average and a 25.5% strikeout rate since the All-Star break. It got so bad at one point that manager Dave Roberts benched him.
A matchup with Greene doesn’t help matters. Hernandez is 1-for-9 with three strikeouts in his career vs. Greene, which equates to a .081 xBA and a .096 xSLG.
Hernandez is also a prime candidate to get lifted for a defensive replacement late in this game. That means there is a ton of value on Hernandez to go hitless at the dish tonight.
- Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
