My three favorite MLB player props for today highlight hitters off to slow starts this season. Two of them are starting to find their swing timing. The other, not so much.
But all three are giving us value in one market or another, so here are my MLB picks for Tuesday, April 22.
Best MLB player props today
Henderson o0.5 RBIs (+220 at bet365)
McMahon u0.5 Hits (+110 at DraftKings)
Diaz o1.5 TB (+140 at bet365)
MLB props for April 22
Gunnar Henderson Over 0.5 RBIs (+220 at bet365)
It’s been a slow start to the season for Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson. Beginning the year on the injured listed certainly doesn’t help but he enters tonight’s game against the Washington Nationals with a .228 batting average and two home runs over 14 games.
But the All-Star and former American League Rookie of the Year is starting to find his rhythm at the plate and is giving us some value in the RBI market.
Henderson was hitting just .138 with a .339 OPS over his first seven games of the season. But since then, his average has skyrocketed up to .321 with a 1.081 OPS over his last seven. That includes three doubles, a triple, and two home runs.
The home runs have come in the last four games since the team moved him to No. 2 in the batting order, and I like his odds to drive in another run against the Nats.
Tonight, Henderson will dig in against left-hander Mitchell Parker, who has a sparkling 1.88 ERA through four starts. However, his advanced stats say he’s been a bit lucky not to give up more runs at this point.
Parker’s expected ERA sits at 3.91, which ranks in the 48th percentile among MLB pitchers. He also ranks in the 41st percentile in expected batting average and the 16th percentile in strikeout rate. Meaning he’s giving up a lot of good contact, and teams just aren’t cashing in.
But at a +220 price tag, I’m betting Henderson will. And don’t worry about the lefty-lefty split. Henderson still had a respectable .829 OPS vs. southpaws and is 2-for-3 with a dinger in his career vs. Parker.
Ryan McMahon Under 0.5 Hits (+110 at DraftKings)
I’d like to believe that if Ryan McMahon got away from the Colorado Rockies, he would be a solid baseball player again. I’m just not so sure anymore.
The Rockies are in the conversation for the worst team in baseball, and the former All-Star has looked anything but this season. McMahon enters tonight’s game against the Kansas City Royals with a .203 batting average and a .635 OPS, and he’s in a particularly bad slump at the moment.
McMahon has just two hits and a whopping 17 strikeouts over his last nine games. That is a .067 batting average and a .343 OPS. He has gone hitless seven times in that period, and there’s a very good chance that number increases tonight.
That’s because McMahon faces off against Royals starter Kris Bubic. The left-hander has been fantastic to start the season, pitching to a 1.88 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP with a strikeout rate of 26.2%.
Bubic has a terrific sweeper and changeup that he uses regularly to keep hitters off balance. And there aren’t many hitters more off balance these days than McMahon.
Not surprisingly, southpaws have given McMahon plenty of problems. The Rockies third baseman is hitting just .182 vs. lefties this season.
Oddsmakers are still giving us plus money for McMahon to have another donut in the hits column tonight. Sign my MLB picks up for that any day of the week.
Yandy Diaz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140 at bet365)
Another guy off to a slow start this season is Yandy Diaz of the Tampa Bay Rays. The former batting champ enters tonight’s interleague matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks with a .222 batting average and a .635 OPS.
But Diaz is starting to swing the bat a little better lately. He has a .292 batting average with a .867 OPS over his last 12 games. That includes two doubles and three home runs and I like him to keep that upward trend going when he faces off against D-Backs starter Brandon Pfaadt.
The 26-year-old right-hander has pitched to a solid 3.04 ERA over his first four starts of the season. But he’s been a little lucky to come away as unscathed as he has. Pfaadt has an expected ERA of 5.28 and an opponent expected batting average of .293. Those both rank in the Bottom 20% among MLB pitchers.
Pfaadt has also never been a big strikeout guy with a career K-rate of 22.2%, and that has dipped to 19.4% so far this season. This means he pitches to a lot of contact, and that plays exactly into Diaz’s game.
The Rays hitter has some pop in his bat, but he’s always been a bat-to-ball guy and I like him to do that here. Diaz has a total bases prop of 1.5 with the Over at a nice +140. He’s topped that number in six times over this 12-game period.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
