It’s another busy day across the Majors, and I’ve dug deep for the best MLB player props for all the action.
Big nights from the likes of Kevin Gausman and Bryce Harper - and a dud from David Peterson - will be in my picks for Thursday, September 11.
Best MLB player props today
Gausman u2.5 ER (-118)
Peterson o2.5 ER (-150)
Harper o1.5 TB (+120)
Our 3 best MLB player props for Thursday, September 11
Take a look at our best bets and expert analysis below.
Prop #1: Kevin Gausman Under 2.5 earned runs
Kevin Gausman owns a 3.63 ERA and a 9-10 record across 28 starts. Solid numbers as the Toronto Blue Jays look to grab the series win over the Houston Astros tonight.
While he hasn’t always received a ton of run support, Gausman is throwing the baseball well, allowing fewer than 2.5 earned runs in back-to-back starts and in four of his last five. Last time out, the veteran threw an absolute gem, giving up a mere one run to the New York Yankees across eight frames.
He’s had success against the Astros in the past, holding them to a .168 average across 107 at-bats.
- Time: 3:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Space City Home Network, Rogers Sportsnet
Prop #2: David Peterson Under 2.5 earned runs
The New York Mets face the Philadelphia Phillies in a crucial NL East matchup tonight, and David Peterson has been in rough shape over the last few starts. While the lefty owns a 3.72 ERA overall, he’s surrendered 12 earned runs across his last two outings.
It won’t get any easier against the Phillies, who historically swing it well against him. They’re batting .304 versus Peterson across 115 at-bats, with the likes of Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and Edmundo Sosa having success.
Peterson also has a 6.75 ERA against Philadelphia this year, allowing seven earned runs in just two starts.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FOX
Prop #3: Bryce Harper Over 1.5 total bases
If we’re going to take Peterson to get lit up with our MLB picks, Harper will play a role. As I mentioned, he’s done damage against the southpaw before, going 9-for-24 with a home run, and he’s batting .270 vs. left-handed pitchers in 2025.
Harper cashed the Over in total bases on Wednesday, smacking a long ball in the 11-3 win. In fact, he’s hit the Over in total bases in back-to-back contests against the Mets. There’s every reason to believe he’ll stay hot in the series finale, too.
He also swings it substantially better at home, hitting .299 compared to .234 on the road.
- Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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