Aaron Judge is the odds-on favorite to win his third AL MVP award, and my MLB picks are backing him to have another big night.
I'm also fading Orioles starter Cade Povich and backing Mets slugger Juan Soto with my favorite MLB player props for Thursday, August 28.
Best MLB player props today
Povich u17.5 outs (-135)
Soto o1.5 total bases (+130)
Judge o1.5 total bases (-115)
Our 3 best MLB player props for Thursday, August 28
Take a look at our best bets and expert analysis below.
Prop #1: Cade Povich Under 17.5 outs
The Boston Red Sox have been productive at the plate, ranking fourth in the majors in runs per game (4.96) and sixth in slugging percentage (.425). They are third in the majors in hard hit rate and exit velocity, as well as seventh in barrel rate.
They've also been hitting well against lefties and face Baltimore Orioles southpaw Cade Povich today. Povich has an expected ERA of 5.57 through 86 innings, and he sits in the bottom fifth percentile in hard hit rate, exit velocity, and barrel rate.
Povich has logged more than 17.5 outs just once in his last 10 starts, and I don't expect him to pitch deep into this game. This prop is as low as -180 at some books, and I would take it at -150 or better.
- Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MASN | NESN
Prop #2: Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases
Juan Soto has a respectable .490 slugging percentage, and the advanced metrics suggest he's actually been very unlucky at the plate. The New York Mets superstar is in the Top-10 in barrel rate and exit velocity, and his expected slugging percentage of .619 ranks third in the majors.
The five-time Silver Slugger winner is due for positive regression, and he's in a good spot for that tonight. Soto's at home with the wind blowing towards the outfield at 10 mph, and he'll have the platoon advantage against Miami Marlins starter Adam Mazur.
Mazur was rocked in his only big league outing this year, surrendering four runs in 5 2/3 innings. He struggled in his debut season last year, posting a 7.49 ERA with an OBA of .301 through eight starts.
Miami also has a struggling bullpen that has pitched to a 5.55 ERA this month.
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLBN
Prop #3: Aaron Judge Over 1.5 total bases
Aaron Judge was having a bit of a mini-slump before going 2-for-4 at the dish with a homer last night.
Judge is the best hitter in the world, and his MLB-leading .668 slugging percentage is a whopping 60 points higher than second-place Shohei Ohtani. Not only is the New York Yankees slugger the reigning home run king, but he also cranks out doubles while batting .323.
There's a 17 mph wind blowing towards the outfield at Guaranteed Rate Field today, and the Chicago White Sox will have Davis Martin on the hill. Martin is currently in the bottom 10th percentile in xERA (5.36) and xBA (.289), while also sitting in the bottom 15th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Getting the o1.5 TB for Judge at close to a PK price is tough to pass up.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN | YES
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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