Starting pitching is the most important component to betting on baseball, and my favorite MLB player props for Saturday are focusing on a trio of southpaws.
See why I'm backing Robbie Ray and Andrew Abbott while fading Jesus Luzardo with my MLB picks for June 28.
Best MLB player props today
Ray o6.5 strikeouts (-135)
Abbott u2.5 earned runs (-115)
Luzardo u17.5 outs (+110)
MLB props for June 28
Robbie Ray Over 6.5 strikeouts (-135 at DraftKings)
Robbie Ray is putting together a sensational season with the San Francisco Giants. The southpaw has a 2.83 ERA through 16 starts, and he ranks in the top 20th percentile in whiff rate and strikeout rate.
The former AL Cy Young winner has racked up at least seven punchouts in 10 of his last 14 starts. Ray will once again pitch deep into today's start against the Chicago White Sox, who sit last in the majors in OPS (.638).
Chicago is also 26th in strikeout rate (23.8%), with that number ballooning to 26.7% against lefties.
Andrew Abbott Under 2.5 earned runs (-115 at bet365)
The Over/Under earned runs for Andrew Abbott is set at 2.5, which seems mispriced given his track record this year and the matchup he has today. The Cincinnati Reds southpaw has allowed fewer than 1.5 earned runs in 11 of 13 starts this season and has pitched to a sparkling 1.79 ERA.
Abbott is also in the top 15th percentile in expected ERA (2.95), expected batting average (.213), and hard hit rate (32.5%), which indicates that he'll be able to sustain this production long-term.
Cincy's lefty faces a San Diego Padres lineup that has gone ice-cold, ranking 26th in the majors in OPS (.668) this month. The Friars also struggle against southpaws: they were 21st in the majors in slugging percentage (.380) versus lefties last year and have been even worse this year, slugging .348.
Jesus Luzardo Under 17.5 outs (+110 at Sports Interaction)
Philadelphia Phillies starter Jesus Luzardo began the season on fire, but has since cooled off. Since the start of May, Luzardo has pitched to a 5.67 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP across 10 starts.
Today, he will be on the road to face an Atlanta Braves squad that has been one of the unluckiest teams in the majors. The Braves are slugging just .379, but their expected slugging percentage of .425 is significantly higher.
Atlanta has a stacked lineup, and seven batters will have the platoon advantage against Luzardo. That's especially important because Luzardo has ugly platoon splits, with right-handed batters boasting an OPS of .776 against him.
This is a five-star prop play, according to THE BAT X, which is projecting 15.8 outs for Luzardo.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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