Happy Monday! Let's kick this week off on a high note!
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB player props for Monday, Aug. 24, including why I expect Parker Messick to shove this evening in Los Angeles.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Parker Messick |
Over 6.5 strikeouts | -158 |
 Kody Clemens |
Over 1.5 total bases | +115 |
 Ryan Feltner |
Under 3.5 strikeouts | +110 |
Parker Messick Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-158)
The obsession continues with backing Cleveland Guardians left-hander Parker Messick, but he keeps finding himself in shove spots. Tonight, he draws one of baseball's most swing-happy lineups, the Los Angeles Angels.
Messick has been on an absolute tear over his last three starts, posting a 32% strikeout rate. Over his last five outings, he sports a 29% strikeout rate, with 30% of his pitches ending in either a swinging strike or called strike and a near-70% first-pitch strike rate.
The very aggressive southpaw faces an Angels lineup that features eight hitters with at least a 21.7% strikeout rate, including four who strike out 32.8% of the time or more. Overall, the team has a 25.5% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers. On top of that, they also own a 74% contact rate and 31.5% O-Swing rate.
If you are not in the juice-paying business, take this up to 7.5 for plus money. The near 5-to-1 price for 10 strikeouts is pretty intriguing as well.
- Time: 9:38 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CLEG, ABTV
Kody Clemens Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)
Oh no, a lefty-on-lefty matchup! Stop crying.
Minnesota Twins first baseman — and son of "The Rocket" — Kody Clemens is in a great spot against Athletics southpaw Jeffrey Springs in Sacramento.
Clemens has a .596 xSLG and a 29.6% ground-ball rate, while generating a 52% hard-hit rate and nearly 15% barrel rate over his last 10 games. Over his last 30 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, the 30-year-old has a .300 BA, .500 SLG and .800 OPS.
Springs has struggled against left-handed hitters, with a 9.82 ERA and 7.16 xFIP while allowing 2.46 HR/9 in his 60 most recent left-on-left matchups. Those lefties have a .285 xBA, .449 xSLG, and .279 ISO.
At +115 for two bases, this is a great price for a guy who is more than capable of a big game. Take this down to +105.
- Time: 9:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MNNT, NBCSCA
Ryan Feltner Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)
Colorado Rockies right-hander Ryan Feltner owns the worst average strikeout rate at Batters-Box for today's slate.
Today marks his 27th game with a poorly rated strikeout rate. In the previous 26, he stayed under 3.5 strikeouts 50% of the time. He has also stayed under this prop in eight of his last 10 poorly rated strikeout rates.
Feltner has a much higher strikeout rate on the road, at 15.20% this year. However, in his last three outings, his strikeout rate is below 10%.
The Washington Nationals have only two bats above a 20% strikeout rate in their last 30 at-bats against a right-handed pitcher.
Unders are always sweaty, but snagging this at plus money will make up for it.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: COLR, NATS
- Prop picks: 428-843, -14.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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