Like a hitter waiting to tee off on a meatball, we’re starting the new week of big-league action ready to crush some winners when it comes to MLB player props.
Nick Lodolo is ready to rack up the punchouts against the bumbling Buccos, Kristian Campbell will keep seeing ghosts at the plate, and Freddie Freeman will hold steady as he continues his parade around the bases on Monday, May 19.
Best MLB player props today
Lodolo o5.5 Ks (-113)
Campbell u0.5 hits (+126)
Freeman o1.5 TB (-103)
MLB props for May 19
Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 strikeouts (-113 at Caesars)
After dealing to the start of the season, Nick Lodolo has struggled to find his consistency over three starts this month. Luckily, the Cincinnati Reds left-hander gets a date with the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates today.
Lodolo has an elevated expected 4.08 ERA, but he’s coming off a couple of solid starts he can build off after limiting the Atlanta Braves and Chicago White Sox to five runs on 12 hits over 11 1/3 innings.
Most importantly, Lodolo’s strikeout rate is starting to return to normal. The left-hander has a career has a K-rate of 19.7% despite a career number of 25.9%. That number has hopped up to 22.7% over his last six starts.
I like him to keep improving on that number today against the Pirates.
It’s been a tough season for the 15-32 Pirates, who must be happy that teams like the Colorado Rockies exist. Run production has been a big problem for the Buccos. Like a big problem.
Pittsburgh enters this game ranked dead last in batting average and OPS, and next-to-last in wRC+. The Pirates also have the third-highest strikeout rate in baseball vs. left-handed pitchers this season.
Then there is the fact that Lodolo has dominated the Pirates' lineup. Current Buccos batters have a combined .145 expected batting average and a .238 expected slugging when facing Lodolo. He’s also struck out a whopping 36.2% of Pirates faced over 58 plate appearances.
Lodolo has a strikeout prop sitting at 5.5 for this matchup. He’s gone over that number in three of his last six starts and had no fewer than eight in each of his last three vs. the Pirates, making this a no-brainer for our MLB picks.
Kristian Campbell Under 0.5 hits (+126 at Caesars)
Boston Red Sox rookie Kristian Campbell stormed onto the scene and ended April hitting above .300 with an OPS above .900. But most MLB rookies experience a lot of swings in performance, and Campbell is no different.
The Red Sox infielder is experiencing his first real big-league slump, with just four hits, a .085 batting average, .253 OPS, and 15 strikeouts over 11 games in May.
So, going against a guy with a pitch called “Ghost Fork” probably isn’t going to help your situation. But that’s what Campbell faces when he and the BoSox take on Kodai Senga and the New York Mets.
Senga has been spinning it for the Mets this season, surrendering just five earned runs in 44 1/3 innings. That’s good for a sparkling 1.09 ERA. While his expected ERA is a little higher at 3.33, that is still well above league average.
He is also limiting opponents to a .228 expected batting average, which ranks in the 73rd percentile among MLB pitchers. Right-handed batters are having the most problems with Senga, hitting just .157 with a .438 OPS.
Senga isn’t the kind of pitcher you typically bust out of a slump against. Campbell is hitless in six of his last eight games, and at this price, I’m willing to bet he puts up another donut in the hit column tonight.
Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (-103 at Caesars)
The Los Angeles Dodgers are coming off a stunning sweep at the hands of the cross-town rival Los Angeles Angels. But if there’s someone you can’t blame for this three-game losing streak, it’s Freddie Freeman.
The Dodgers’ first baseman has felt nearly impossible to get out this month. Freeman enters this game hitting .429 with a 1.156 OPS, including eight extra-base hits and 17 RBIs over 16 games in May, and I’m not sure Arizona Diamondbacks starter Brandon Pfaadt is the guy to slow Freeman down.
On the surface, Pfaadt has looked solid this season, pitching to a 3.79 ERA, and that includes a quality start vs. the Dodgers earlier this month. However, the advanced numbers say there is some regression on the horizon.
The 26-year-old right-hander owns a 5.63 expected ERA while surrendering a .304 expected batting average to opponents. Both rank in the Bottom 11% among MLB pitchers.
Freeman has also fared well against Pfaadt in the past, going 5-for-15 with two doubles and a dinger, which includes a hit in that most recent meeting. That’s good for a .339 xBA and a .714 xSLG.
Freeman has topped 1.5 total bases 10 times over his last 18 games. At close to even money in a favorable matchup, I’m willing to bet he does so again.
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