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We've reviewed the entire schedule of games to find the best value. Here are my best MLB player props for June 6th.
Best MLB player props today
Kyle Schwarber home run (+330 at FanDuel)
Walker Buehler Under 15.5 outs (-140 at DraftKings)
Hayden Birdsong Over 4.5 strikeouts (-130 at DraftKings)
MLB props for June 6
Kyle Schwarber home run (+330 at FanDuel)
We're backing Bailey to falter here, with all pun intended.
It's Kyle Schwarber's month, which means it feels like a great place to start this props column. Schwarber has roughly a career .917 ERA in June, which is easily the best of any month in his career. It's a monthly number that rivals a guy named Babe Ruth, and more often than not, betting him to go deep in this month has been a relatively profitable strategy. Tonight, he'll see an excellent matchup for that to happen.
It's straightforward, but anytime you see the Philadelphia Phillies opposing a pitcher with a hard-hit rate in the bottom 30th percentile of baseball, then you're going to be attracted to Schwarber. Simply because few players in baseball hit the ball harder than he does. There's more to like about this matchup, though.
Schwarber's .405 isolated power rating against southpaws is now the fifth-best in baseball, trailing the likes of only Aaron Judge and Teoscar Hernandez. The latter of those went deep against Falter earlier this season already, and Judge hit a triple-digit exit velocity ball against him before that.
I don't need much of a reason to bet Schwarber to go deep at anything above the +300 price point, adding his prowess against lefties to the high humidity expected in Pittsburgh today, and this feels like a great spot.
Walker Buehler Under 15.5 outs (-140 at DraftKings)
If you asked me right now, I'd say the likelihood of Walker Buehler returning to his early career-dominant self is more unlikely than ever. We've just seen very little to justify believing in it anymore.
Sure, there was the flash against the Toronto Blue Jays earlier this season when he struck out seven and went six innings with one earned run. The problem? It was smashed in the middle of two dreadful starts, like when he gave up five earned runs in five innings to the St Louis Cardinals.
The BatX projects him for around 90 pitches today, but even that feels friendly. Either way, coming back out after five innings against this New York Yankees lineup is a tall task. He's done it only once over his last three starts, and none target his weaknesses as well as this lineup.
Buehler is still a groundball-reliant pitcher, ranking in the 60th percentile among starters in groundball rate. The reason for his dramatic fall from his earlier career is a reduction in that rate.
The Yankees will likely replicate some of those issues throughout his career, given that they come into this game with the third-lowest ground ball rate in the sport. Oh yeah, it certainly doesn't help Buehler's case that the fastball makes up over 40% of his arsenal. I expect a quick exit for the former Los Angeles Dodgers star tonight.
Hayden Birdsong Over 4.5 strikeouts (-130 at DraftKings)
I'm not sure what to make of this number, considering the Atlanta Braves team appears to be back to its old free-swinging ways and a pitcher who is rapidly improving; I'll gladly take it, though.
Atlanta has slowly increased its strikeout total as the season has gone on, introducing Ronald Acuna and having some negative regression along the way. Over its last three games, it's tied for the 8th most strikeouts per game in baseball with 9. Over the past month, that number is a bit higher.
Enter Hayden Birdsong, a young righty who has been quite strong since replacing Jordan Hicks in the starting rotation, and that comes into today with a whiff rate in elite territory and a strikeout rate close behind. His changeup, a pitch that produced a 42% whiff rate, is a real issue for the Braves lineup.
They have whiffed a ton against it this season, and with Acuna in the lineup, they will have up to six players with an above-average strikeout rate against that pitch. I expect him to lean on it a ton tonight to help get this prop home.
My most significant edge on the slate was here, with a projected strikeout total of a complete K above the actual number. I'd play this current prop to -166.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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