It was a 1-2 SU day on Tuesday, but the pitcher and MLB player props have been on a great August run for over five units. There are some great angles today with a full slate, some leash issues, and great schedule spots.
Grayson Rodriguez has been on a 5-0 O/U heater of late on his strikeout prop and might get the worst version of the Guardians offense today with a tired bullpen that might extend his leash.
The projections are making Sean Burke's Under K prop better than 50% but offering plus-money odds, while Bryan Woo is dealing with a shoulder issue and 18 outs is going to be tough to get on his leash.
These are my favorite MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 26.
Best MLB strikeout props and starting pitcher picks today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 Grayson Rodriguez |
Over 4.5 strikeouts | +121 |
 Sean Burke |
Under 5.5 strikeouts | +124 |
 Bryan Woo |
Under 17.5 outs | -112 |
Strikeout prop: Grayson Rodriguez Over 4.5 strikeouts (+121)
Let's start the pitcher slate with a modest plus-money Over on a pitcher who has been better than a strikeout per inning over his last five starts. Grayson Rodriguez has gone 27 innings over that stretch, reaching 21 outs twice, while going Over this total in all five games with 31 total punchouts.
The right-hander does get a low-K% Cleveland team, but that's priced in. What isn't priced in is the schedule spot for the Cleveland Guardians, who are leaving the West Coast after today's game before opening a massive home series Friday. Cleveland has also played five straight games on the road, including a 10-inning game Tuesday.
G-Rod might get the worst version of this Cleveland offense, and projects for 4.56 Ks on 91 pitches today, making this Over a play to a breakeven price of +100. He could be needed to throw even more with the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen taxed.
I've also added a 50% strikeout boost from DraftKings to push this to +182.
- Time: 4:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ABTV, Guardians.TV
Strikeout prop: Sean Burke Under 5.5 strikeouts (+124)
This shows as the best value, per the projections, of all the strikeout props today. The Chicago White Sox starter projects for 88 pitches and 5.4 total Ks, making this plus-money Under a buy to -110 or better.
Sean Burke has recorded four or fewer Ks in three of his last four starts and has plenty of arms available in the pen today. He's allowed 4+ runs in back-to-back starts for just the second time this year, while his leash averages 91 pitches. His workload could also come into question late in the season with the White Sox pushing for a playoff run.
This is a bet where I trust the projection inputs, and the plus-money price makes this a great bet on a better-than-50% probable outcome.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Chicago Sports Network, Rangers Sports Network
Pitcher outs prop: Bryan Woo Under 17.5 outs (-112)
Seattle Mariners starter Bryan Woo missed his last start due to a right shoulder issue. He threw just 75 pitches in that outing and could be on a more conservative pitch count today against a tough Philadelphia Phillies lineup.
The Mariners are in a good spot to handle Woo with caution after a strong start from George Kirby yesterday and just 27 pitches used from the bullpen. There are a lot of paths, including the shoulder, that could prevent Woo from finishing the sixth inning, something he had done at just a 50% clip over his last 12 starts.
Woo was already averaging just 88 pitches per start, but the shoulder adds another layer of concern, while the bullpen is fresh. He projects for just 80 pitches and 15.1 outs today, leaving plenty of meat on this Under bone and making it to the Free Picks Page.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Mariners.TV, NBCSP
- Prop picks: 22-19, +5.13 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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