The Houston Astros and New York Yankees meet at Yankee Stadium tonight with the Bronx Bombers being a -124 favorite.
Elmer Rodriguez makes a spot start with 17 career big-league innings behind him, while Peter Lambert counters with a 3.68 ERA and a 3.44 xERA across 122.1 frames.
My Astros vs. Yankees predictions back the road dog and a total the market has priced for a normal starter. Read my MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 26.
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Who will win Astros vs Yankees today: Astros (+109)
The New York Yankees offense has become a little more all-or-nothing over the last month, which fits pretty well with their batting profile in the wake of multiple injuries, most notably Aaron Judge.
That looms fairly large here and is why I'm playing the Houston Astros down to +105.
New York has the lowest BaBIP in MLB at .273 and the third-worst contact rate at 72.2%, and Astros arm Peter Lambert takes away the one path they have.
He grades in the 62nd percentile in barrel rate and the 64th percentile in hard-hit rate; metrics that have improved recently.
Give me Houston.
COVERS INTEL: Elmer Rodriguez has not been able to finish anyone off, posting a 12.0% strikeout rate against a 27.0% whiff rate, which means hitters are missing early and still putting the ball in play late.Astros vs Yankees Over/Under pick: Over 8.5 (-120)
I like the Over 8.5 to -130.
Young Yankees arm Elmer Rodríguez has averaged just 4.25 innings across his four big-league starts, which could leave five-plus innings for a bullpen that has started to accumulate some workload.
Rodríguez also brings real contact risk while he is on the mound: his four-seamer has been hit at a 63.6% hard-hit rate with a .668 xSLG despite a 22.6% usage rate.
Lambert is the more fly-ball-oriented starter, ranking in the 30th percentile in ground-ball rate at 38.9% with a 33.0% fly-ball rate. I still expect him to limit barrels, but that batted-ball profile leaves enough home-run upside for New York to contribute.
Houston should do most of the scoring damage, and the Yankees only need to provide enough support for this total to get over 8.5.
Astros vs Yankees home run prediction: Yordan Alvarez (+296)
Elmer Rodríguez does not have a pitch that survives contact.
His four-seamer, thrown 22.6% of the time, has allowed a .538 slugging percentage with a 63.6% hard-hit rate and a .668 xSLG, and his sinker yields a .333 average and .409 xwOBA on 41.5% usage with only a 14.5% whiff rate.
A 13.3% walk rate against a 12.0% strikeout rate means those pitches show up in hitters' counts all night. Yordan Alvarez is the bat in this lineup built to end an at-bat with one swing.
- ML/RL bets: 46-44, +2.90 units
- Over/Under bets: 52-38, +15.49 units
Astros vs Yankees weather
Weather should not be much of impact with no wind and a high in the low-80s, optimum conditions for a baseball game.Dodgers vs Braves odds
Astros vs Yankees odds
- Moneyline: Astros +126 | Yankees -124
- Run line: Astros +1.5 | Yankees -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Astros vs Yankees trend
The Over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between the Houston Astros and New York Yankees. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Yankees.
How to watch Astros vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, N.Y. |
| Date | Wednesday, Aug. 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | SCHN, Amazon Prime Video |
| Astros starting pitcher | Peter Lambert (8-7, 3.68 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Elmer Rodriguez (0-2, 4.76 ERA) |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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