Baseball all day means there will be plenty of MLB player props to sift through.
Join me as I break down three of my favorite MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 26, including why MacKenzie Gore is going to shove on the South Side.
Best MLB player props today
| Player | Pick | Odds |
|---|---|---|
 MacKenzie Gore |
Over 6.5 strikeouts | +114 |
 Joey Cantillo |
Under 6.5 strikeouts | -104 |
 Miguel Vargas |
Over 0.5 walks | +123 |
MacKenzie Gore Over 6.5 strikeouts (+114)
With the Chicago White Sox coming off putting up nearly two touchdowns on the Texas Rangers last night, they may be in a letdown spot after all of that offensive production.
The Rangers send out left-hander MacKenzie Gore, who has been a strikeout machine over his last few outings, owning a 29.17% strikeout rate, 31.8% called strike or swinging strike rate, and 36.9% whiff rate over his last three starts.
Chicago has struggled with striking out against southpaws this season. However, in their last six games against left-handed pitching, they own a 26.4% strikeout rate, 74.3% contact rate, and 33.33% O-Swing rate (swinging at pitches outside of the zone).
Overall, in the White Sox's last six games, they have the third-highest strikeout rate, second-lowest contact rate and third-highest swinging strike rate. On top of that, across the team's last 30 at-bats versus a left-handed pitcher, six hitters have at least a 26.7% strikeout rate.
I laddered this to 11+ strikeouts. Take this down to +105.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, RSN
Joey Cantillo Under 6.5 strikeouts (-104)
Cleveland Guardians left-hander Joey Cantillo has been amazing in his last few starts, owning a 31.46% strikeout rate over his last five outings. However, during that stretch, he also owns a 1.40 WHIP while allowing a near 55% hard-hit rate and near 12% barrel rate to opposing hitters.
The Los Angeles Angels have been eyeing up southpaws recently. Despite having three hitters with strikeout rates above 30% in their last 30 at-bats vs. lefties, four are at 20% or less, while six are at 26% or less.
On top of that, over their last six games against a left-handed pitcher, the Angels own a 22.5% strikeout rate. Cantillo will get a few strikeouts this evening, but seven seems like a little much.
Take this down to -115.
- Time: 4:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: ABTV, CLEG
Miguel Vargas Over 0.5 walks (+123)
The batter with the highest walk rate in all of baseball over his last 10 games is Chicago White Sox third baseman Miguel Vargas, who is walking at a near 30% clip. Even across his last 15 games, he is still third-highest in walk rate at 23.3%.
This evening, he draws MacKenzie Gore, who I already love to go over his strikeout prop.
Gore has not been walking too many batters as of late, but the Rangers' bullpen has, holding an 11.1% walk rate over their last 21 games, including an 8.8% walk rate against right-handed hitters on the road.
If you want to wait until Gore is taken out to get a better number, that is not a bad idea. However, +120 is already a great price.
Take this down to +110.
- Time: 7:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CHSN, RSN
- Prop picks: 430-860, -20.9 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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