It's time to get the dinger train back on the rails after a great August run that has made up a ton of ground. It's an afternoon getaway Wednesday with a lot of MLB player props and four-baggers to choose from.
The Nationals have to be on the card today, and CJ Abrams is the obvious choice at his current price. Plus, it's time to test the "day after theory" as I'm going back to Vinnie Pasquantino vs. the Jays' bullpen.
These are my favorite home run props for Wednesday, Aug. 26.
Best MLB home run props today
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CJ Abrams
Vinnie Pasquantino
Home run pick: CJ Abrams (+321)
CJ Abrams has the fourth-best probability to go deep today, and his home run price at +300 or better is a buy for me. He gets the best home run matchup in Colorado's Tanner Gordon, who has the worst HR/9 among all starters today since the beginning of last season.
Gordon is a fringe starter and is only in the rotation because the Rockies released Michael Lorenzen. As a starter (six games), he owns a 1.028 OPS against, with seven homers allowed in just 28+ innings. Batters are killing him the second time through the order, slashing .383/.453/.617. But even in the first plate appearance, hitters have a .673 slugging against Gordon.
The Nationals could put up seven runs today, and all their starters are live on the longball, but I'll take a soon-to-be 30-HR hitter at a price on the good side of three dollars. Nationals Park also ranks as the third-best park for home runs today, per Ball Park Pal.
- Time: 6:45 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Nationals.TV, Rockies.TV
Home run pick: Vinnie Pasquantino (+588)
I want another piece of the Royals offense today in the second-best HR park, facing the Jays on a bullpen day after Toronto already used five bullpen arms in yesterday’s series opener.
Bobby Witt is +EV, but the Blue Jays intentionally walked him yesterday, which scares me a little. Losing 20-25% of your chances to go deep is not something I want to deal with, so I’ll get back on the Pasquatch today at a price a little shorter than yesterday.
Vinnie Pasquantino at +500 or better is the route I want after betting him at +600 yesterday. I had a fair price of +450 yesterday, and that number is maybe 20-25 points higher today. With Jac Caglianone banged up, Pasquantino is the best hitter in this lineup right now, posting a .656 SLG over the last 30 days with a 54.8% fly-ball rate that paces the club.
Walking Witt to get to Vinnie is going to backfire on the Jays today.
- Time: 7:07 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Sportsnet, Royals.TV
- HR picks: 32-163, -10.7 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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