Seattle Mariners starter Bryan Woo brings one of baseball’s best home splits into the series finale as the Philadelphia Phillies visit the Seattle Mariners this afternoon. Philadelphia is a -126 favorite behind Jesús Luzardo, with first pitch set for 4:10 p.m. ET at T-Mobile Park.
Woo’s dominance at home shapes my Phillies vs. Mariners predictions, which back Seattle as a home underdog, lean Under a low total, and target the hottest bat in the series to go deep.
Read more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, Aug. 26.
Who will win Phillies vs Mariners today: Mariners moneyline (+114)
Jesús Luzardo gives the Philadelphia Phillies a strong starter, but Bryan Woo’s dominance at T-Mobile Park and Seattle’s recent form make the Mariners worth backing as a home underdog. Woo has been a different pitcher in Seattle, striking out 69 batters against just 11 walks and allowing only four home runs across 64 1/3 home innings.
Philadelphia hasn’t solved Seattle’s pitching in this series, scoring only three runs through the first two games in losses of 9-2 and 4-1. Cal Raleigh is also scorching, with four homers over the first two games, giving the Seattle Mariners the hotter lineup.
Luzardo has been excellent, but at +114, I don’t need Seattle to hold the clear pitching edge. Woo’s home dominance and a struggling Phillies offense are enough to take the plus money. I’d play Seattle down to +105.
COVERS INTEL: Bryan Woo has been overpowering at home, posting a 1.96 ERA and 0.75 WHIP across 64 1/3 innings at T-Mobile Park, where he's 7-0.
Phillies vs Mariners Over/Under pick: Under 6.5 (+109)
Woo and Luzardo both have real paths to controlling this game, and the plus-money price makes the Under at 6.5 worth backing. Woo’s home numbers are the foundation, with a 0.56 HR/9 at T-Mobile Park, and Philadelphia has been held down all series.
Luzardo gives us reason to expect Seattle’s scoring to cool as well. The Phillies left-hander owns a 3.35 ERA with 194 strikeouts and has gone 7-1 with a 2.06 ERA over his last 13 starts, and Seattle has scuffled against left-handers lately.
T-Mobile Park is one of baseball’s more run-suppressing environments, adding another layer to the pitching edge. I’d play the Under down to even money.
Phillies vs Mariners home run prediction: Cal Raleigh (+350)
Cal Raleigh has rediscovered his power stroke in a big way, and I’ll back the hottest bat in this series to keep it going. Raleigh homered four times through the first two games against Philadelphia, including a three-homer game on Monday, and his fourth blast gave him home runs in four consecutive official at-bats on his way to 18 for the season.
The left-on-left label is misleading, too, because Raleigh is a switch hitter and will bat right-handed against Luzardo. He has six homers in 143 plate appearances against lefties, and 13 of Luzardo’s home runs allowed this season have come from right-handed hitters.
Raleigh’s path is Luzardo’s four-seam fastball and changeup, more hittable offerings than his tough sweeper, with opponents slugging .473 against the four-seamer. With Raleigh seeing the ball as well as anyone in baseball, I’ll take his surge continuing at +350 or better for a quarter unit.
- ML/RL bets: 3-5, -2.07 units
- Over/Under bets: 5-3, +1.87 units
Phillies vs Mariners weather
T-Mobile Park is one of the most run-suppressing environments in baseball (92 Park Factor since 2024), which supports the Under pick. The retractable roof also keeps conditions steady for the 4:10 p.m. start.
Phillies vs Mariners odds
- Moneyline: Phillies -126 | Mariners +114
- Run line: Phillies -1.5 (+140) | Mariners +1.5 (-161)
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 (-126) | Under 6.5 (+109)
Phillies vs Mariners trend
Seattle has produced just a .644 OPS against left-handed pitching over the last 30 days, a cold stretch against southpaws that backs the Under with Jesús Luzardo on the mound. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mariners.
How to watch Phillies vs Mariners and game info
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, Wash. |
| Date | Wednesday, Aug. 26, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCS-Philadelphia, Mariners.TV |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Jesus Luzardo (11-5, 3.35 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Bryan Woo (9-8, 4.10 ERA) |
Phillies vs Mariners latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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