Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Waldron's Knuckler Keeps Dancing

Prop bet #1: Catch him if you can

It’s time for my favorite player prop going right now: the Under on Triston McKenzie's hits allowed.

It looks like the Cleveland Guardians starter has found his 2022 form where he pitched to a sub-3.00 ERA and limited opponents to a .201 batting average. Well, guess what? McKenzie owns a 2.52 ERA and has limited opposing teams to a .201 batting average over his last seven starts. 

McKenzie employs a four-seam fastball, a curveball, and a slider. He mixes those pitches well to keep hitters off balance while creating soft contact. But it’s the fact that he is also a little wild that makes the Under hits allowed such a profitable bet these days.

The 26-year-old ranks in the seventh percentile when it comes to walk rate. He’s given out three or more free passes in seven of 10 starts and in each of his last four. Those walks can quickly build up his pitch count, resulting in shorter outings even if he is pitching well. He’s only completed six innings three times this season, averaging 15.7 outs per start.

Simply put, he’s a great combination of being unhittable while running up his pitch out quickly, with his misses generally out of the zone, instead of meatballs for hitters to tee off on.

Speaking of hitters. Tonight, McKenzie will stare across at the Colorado Rockies. While Colorado’s lineup has been a little more productive lately, the overall numbers vs. right-handers have not been good. 

The Rockies have the third-worst wRC+ when facing righties this season and the fourth-worst strikeout rate while ranking 19th in OPS.

Additionally, McKenzie’s hits-allowed prop is being boosted a bit here since he's pitching at Coors Field. But this looks like a great bet with the 5.5 at close to even money. He’s only gone Over this number once in 10 starts this season.

Triston McKenzie prop: Under 5.5 hits allowed (-105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: The knuckleball is BACK!

Knuckleballer alert! 

Baseball is just better when there is a good knuckleball around and San Diego Padres pitcher Matt Waldron has given us just that.

Now, Waldron isn’t a knuckleball-only pitcher like R.A. Dickey, but it is his primary pitch, throwing it almost 40% of the time. The right-hander also mixes in a four-seam fastball, a sweeper, a sinker, and a cutter for good measure. 

But we’re here to talk about the knuckleball and Waldron has that thing dancing! Opponents have just a .218 expected batting average and a 28.7% whiff rate against Waldron’s knuckler. That has resulted in a solid 23.5% strikeout rate, which has spiked up recently.

The 27-year-old has struck out 23 batters in 16 innings pitched over his three starts, which works out to a 35.4% K-rate and I’m betting that knuckler keeps dancing when he takes on the Miami Marlins tonight.

The Fish are floundering. They have scored the fewest runs in the National League and have the fifth-worst wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers this season. And while they are a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to K-rate vs. righties, there is an important number to consider here regarding Waldron’s strikeout prop. They rank dead last in MLB in chase rate. That is not a good thing when targeting a knuckleball.

Waldron’s strikeout prop is sitting on the board at 4.5. That’s a number he’s crushed in his last three starts and has gone Over in six of his 10 starts this season.

Matt Waldron prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (-120 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Canning can't find the zone

It looks like it will be another long summer for the Los Angeles Angels. At 20-33, they sit in last place in the American League West and the only AL team with fewer losses is the abysmal Chicago White Sox. 

All that’s on the docket for today is a date with Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and the AL-leading New York Yankees. It’s difficult to imagine Angels’ starter Griffin Canning feeling good about this matchup.

Canning has been a little better in May, but the overall numbers aren’t pretty. The 28-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 5.05 expected ERA while surrendering a .273 opponent expected batting average. Those rank in the 17th and 20th percentile, respectively, among MLB pitchers, and despite not giving up a ton of runs recently, Griffin has still been battling his command. 

Canning has handed out 14 free passes over his last five starts, including three in each of his last two. For the season, he ranks in the 34th percentile in walk rate. So, this matchup against the Yankees will be a problem. 

Soto is still arguably the most patient hitter in baseball, while anyone with a brain should not be pitching to Judge the way he is hitting right now. It’s also helped that Giancarlo Stanton and Alex Verdugo haven’t been automatic outs behind those two anymore. Overall, the Yankees have the third-highest walk rate when facing right-handed pitching this season.

Even with a high walk prop of 2.5, getting plus money on the Over is never a bad thing going against a lineup with Soto and Judge. 

Griffin Canning prop: Over 2.5 walks allowed (+140 at bet365)