Rafael Devers has been red-hot over the last month and a half, and the only thing that could stop him tonight is that he won't see many hittable pitches.
My MLB picks for today get into the player props walks market for the Red Sox slugger while also betting on Freddy Peralta and Ben Lively. Here are my three favorite MLB props for Saturday, June 8.
MLB props for June 8
- Devers Over 0.5 walks (+115 at bet365)
- Peralta Over 6.5 strikeouts (-136 at FanDuel)
- Lively Under 2.5 earned runs (+105 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 6-8 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Devers Over 0.5 walks
Rafael Devers is Boston's most feared hitter, and the two-time Silver Slugger winner is slashing .318/.392/.523 over his last 40 games. Devers also leads the Red Sox with 27 walks in 53 games, and I like his chances of getting a free pass today.
Devers and the Boston Red Sox are facing the Chicago White Sox, who are giving the pill to the struggling Nick Nastrini. Nastrini has the highest walk rate in the majors and has issued a whopping 18 freebies in 15 1/3 innings over his last four outings.
Chicago's bullpen is also dead-last in the majors with 4.74 walks per nine innings, so things aren't going to get any better once Nastrini leaves the bump.
Rafael Devers prop: Over 0.5 walks (+115 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Peralta Over 6.5 strikeouts
Freddy Peralta fanned seven batters in just five innings against the White Sox in his last outing. He's racked up seven-plus punchouts in nine of his 12 starts this year. The hard-throwing righthander relies predominantly on a heater that averages 94.5 mph, but he also mixes in a nasty slider and changeup.
Peralta ranks in the Top 10th percentile in whiff rate and strikeout rate, and he's in a favorable matchup today against the Tigers. Detroit is 23rd in the majors in strikeout rate (23.6%), with that number ticking up to 24.2% against righties. The Over 6.5 for Peralta's strikeouts opened at -130 but has been steamed as high as -150, so remember to shop around for the best number.
Freddy Peralta prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (-136 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #3: Lively Under 2.5 earned runs
Ben Lively gets the nod tonight for Cleveland, and he's in the middle of a breakout season — pitching to a 2.84 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP through nine starts. Statcast analytics don't love Lively (his xERA is at 3.60) but it's tough to argue with the results and it helps he faces the Marlins today.
The Under has cashed on Miami's team total in 34 of the last 55 games for a profit of +9.65 units. The Marlins are 29th in the majors in OPS (.642) while ranking 26th in xwOBA (.304). They're also 29th in the majors in scoring with 3.65 runs per game, dropping to just 2.92 runs/game over the last 15 days.
With Lively allowing fewer than 3 runs in seven of nine starts this year, bet the Under 2.5 on his earned runs at plus money.
Ben Lively prop: Under 2.5 earned runs (+105 at DraftKings)
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