Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Anderson's Luck Runs Out

Prop bet #1: Mr. Duck's goose is cooked

The void between Tyler Anderson's actual results against his expected metrics is getting ridiculous. At some point, negative regression is coming for the Los Angeles Angels lefty. Anderson holds an ERA of 2.47 but an expected one over 4.00. That's one of the most significant differentials in baseball.  

The San Diego Padres should do an excellent job of attacking Anderson. He ranks in the bottom 15% in barrel rate and naturally fares poorly at a hard-hit rate. This Padres lineup has the power to capitalize on that.

San Diego's approach should be helpful, too. Over the last 10 games, the Padres have been more patient at the plate, and if that continues, it should be beneficial against a player with one of the higher walk rates in the league. 

Between his inability to stay in the zone and getting measured up when he does, Anderson will get chased early tonight.

Tyler Anderson prop: Under 17.5 outs (+125 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Hey Abbott!

Cincinnati Reds left-hander Andrew Abbott is among the most impressive young pitchers in the league today, but he's much more of a pitch-to-contact thrower than a big strikeout guy. Still, the Over in the strikeout market can present value from time to time, and today is one of those examples.

Abbott will throw a heavy dosage of fastballs, making up nearly 60% of his arsenal, and it's been a pretty effective pitch for him. Coming into this matchup, that pitch has yielded a negative run value with opponents hitting around .200. However, the bigger story here is the change-up, which has become his put-away pitch. It produced a 30% whiff rate and is a pitch these Colorado Rockies hitters have struggled against. Depending on Colorado's lineup, it could have up to six players with an above-average whiff rate against that pitch. 

I'll take my chances here. Abbott has only gone Over this number once in his last four games. However, it came against the Seattle Mariners, which is the only team he's faced in that stretch that ranks in the Bottom 5 of strikeouts per game. The Rockies rank even worse in that department.

Andrew Abbott prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (+130 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Oh no, Nido

We're finishing things up with a fade of Tomas Nido, one of the worst fastball hitters in the New York Mets organization. The .225 batting average is a poor reflection, but Nido has had the benefit or luck of not facing too many fastball-heavy pitchers. Today, that changes.

MacKenzie Gore will take the mound for the Washington Nationals tonight and look to expand on his decent start to the season. 

The metrics are mostly all positive and paint a story that we should see more overall solid play from Gore. The story of this play is Gore's fastball, which he's throwing more frequently, a nearly 60% clip in his last three games. 

That's terrible news for Nido, who enters with a .136 batting average against the four-seam fastball this season. That's the third worst of any qualified player in the Mets organization. He pairs that with a whiff rate of nearly 40% against that pitch, which is a terrible omen when facing a strikeout artist like Gore. 

Add in a reasonable pinch-hit risk, and the lefty-righty matchups that can be thrown here, and I like my chances. I priced this at -128.

Tomas Nido prop: Under 0.5 hits (-115 at bet365)