It’s a light day of action on the diamond with just six games on the MLB schedule but with a handful of day games, that means all-day baseball betting.
It also means MLB player props. I dig through the MLB odds to bring you my three favorites for today, which include one for Minnesota Twins ace Pablo Lopez and Pittsburgh Pirates All-Star Bryan Reynolds.
Check out all my best MLB picks in the player prop markets below.
MLB props for April 4
- Reynolds Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at bet365)
- Lopez Under 5.5 strikeouts (+116 at FanDuel)
- Soroka Over 3.5 strikeouts (+100 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 4/4 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Prop bet #1: A plentiful bounty
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been one of the most fun stories through the very early part of this MLB season. The Buccos got off to a 5-0 start before finally falling to the Washington Nationals on Wednesday.
Now, the Pirates have taken advantage of matchups against the Miami Marlins and Nats, but it looks like the lineup is now talented enough to do that regularly.
Budding superstar Oneil Cruz leads the way at the top of the order, but right behind him is veteran Bryan Reynolds. The 29-year-old has gotten his 2024 campaign off to a solid start, hitting .286 with a .894 OPS, a dinger, and eight runs driven in and he gets an absolute banger of a matchup in the series finale against the Nationals.
Washington hands the ball to Josiah Gray, a promising young right-hander who still hasn’t quite put it all together. Gray had a 4.59 expected ERA for his career heading into this season and his first start of the year was a rough one, surrendering seven runs on eight hits, including two homers in just four innings of work.
Gray has also had problems with getting Reynolds out during their respective careers. Reynolds has four hits with a double and a home run in eight career plate appearances against Gray. That works out to a .574 expected batting average and a 1.051 expected slugging percentage.
The Over 1.5 total bases for Reynolds is sitting at +135, a number he’s gone Over in three of his six games this season, and with this matchup at this price, he’s a good bet to go Over again.
Bryan Reynolds prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Life of Pablo
The Minnesota Twins were projected to win the American League Central heading into the 2024 MLB campaign, but it looks like that will be easier said than done.
Both the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals look like improved ball clubs, and, as always, the Cleveland Guardians get overlooked. The Guardians have started the season 5-2 and will attempt to steal the opener of this series when they dig in against Twins ace Pablo Lopez.
Now, a matchup with Lopez may look daunting on the surface. He is coming off a season where he pitched to a 3.66 ERA and had the highest strikeouts per nine innings in his career at 10.9. But a team that has always handled him well has been the Guardians, particularly when it comes to limiting strikeouts — which remains this lineup's bread and butter.
Cleveland has been one of the best teams in baseball when it comes to strikeout rate over the past few seasons and it’s been more of the same early on this year. The Guardians' 16.4% K-rate when facing right-handed pitching is the third-lowest in the majors so far this season.
The Guardians faced Lopez three times in 2023, tagging him for nine runs on 24 hits while striking out just 13 times over 17 2/3 innings. They never struck out more than five times against Lopez in any of those matchups. Cleveland also elevated Lopez’s pitch count, drawing seven walks.
Lopez has a strikeout total of 5.5 for today’s matchup. The Under at +115 is giving us some good value here.
Pablo Lopez prop: Under 5.5 strikeouts (+116 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #3: Soroka's redemption tour continues
As a fellow Canadian, I hope that Mike Soroka can pitch well enough to get as far away from the Chicago White Sox as possible.
The former top pitching prospect's career has been derailed by injuries and he's trying to get things back on track with the lowly White Sox, making his second start of the season when he takes the ball against the upstart Kansas City Royals tonight.
Soroka’s first start with the Pale Hose did not go as planned, as the right-hander allowed four runs on seven hits, including a dinger, with three walks and no strikeouts over five innings against another fresh-faced team from the American League Central — the Detroit Tigers.
However, I’m not ready to write off the 26-year-old after just one start and while Soroka has never been a huge strikeout guy, I’m betting we see an improvement over the donut he put up last time.
Soroka employs a four-seamer, slider, sinker, and changeup, mixing his pitches relatively well. Now, he faces a Royals lineup with some talent, most notably Bobby Witt Jr., but one that still has some holes at the back half.
Kansas City ranks 15th in OPS and wRC+ while having the 13th-highest strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitchers this season. That should allow Soroka to pitch at least five innings in this one, making four or more strikeouts more than a reasonable outcome for him in this one.
Mike Soroka prop: Over 3.5 strikeouts (+100 at DraftKings)
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