The Pittsburgh Pirates and Arizona Diamondbacks meet in National League action this afternoon at Chase Field in Phoenix.
Paul Skenes has been lights-out, and my Pirates vs. Diamondbacks predictions are expecting him to dominate again.
I break the matchup down further with my MLB picks for Wednesday, May 28.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks prediction
My Pirates vs Diamondbacks best bet: Paul Skenes Under 1.5 earned runs (+126 at Caesars)
It’s no secret that Paul Skenes is one of the best pitchers in the game, and he’s proving that in 2025. The right-hander boasts a 2.35 ERA, striking out 70 in 68 2/3 innings of work while walking just 18 batters.
Skenes may not always get a ton of run support, but he keeps his team in ballgames.
The flamethrower has cashed the Under in earned runs allowed in three consecutive outings, giving up just one in each of those starts against the Milwaukee Brewers, Philadelphia Phillies, and New York Mets. He also tossed at least six innings in all three appearances.
When it comes to facing the Arizona Diamondbacks, it’s a small sample size. He’s held their lineup to a .231 average across 13 at-bats. However, Skenes has been a mile better on the road with a 1.40 ERA in six starts compared to a 3.60 ERA at home.
He’ll keep it rolling and have another quality start this afternoon in the desert.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Paul Skenes Under 1.5 earned runs
Corbin Carroll Over 0.5 hits
Zac Gallen Over 2.5 earned runs
Corbin Carroll is having an impressive campaign for Arizona. He’s hitting .259 with 16 home runs, nine doubles, six triples, and 35 RBI.
The speedster is doing it all.
While he’s only cashed the Over once in his last five games, there’s reason to believe he’ll have at least one hit today.
Carroll has had success against Skenes, going 2-for-3 lifetime. He’s also batting .274 at home compared to .243 on the road.
Zac Gallen is usually one of Arizona’s top arms, but it’s been a much different story in 2025.
The right-hander is 3-6 with a brutal 5.25 ERA in 11 starts. His ERA inflates to 6.03 ERA at home, and while the Pittsburgh Pirates aren’t exactly a prize offensively, his numbers aren’t either.
Gallen has allowed Over 2.5 earned runs in three starts in a row. In fact, he’s given up 14 earned runs during that span and four home runs – all against the lowly Colorado Rockies.
There is evidence that struggling lineups can also do damage. Pittsburgh’s lineup is also batting .266 against him. He’ll surrender some runs this afternoon.
Pirates vs Diamondbacks odds
Pirates vs Diamondbacks live odds
Pirates vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +113 | Arizona -124
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 | Arizona -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Pirates vs Diamondbacks trend
The Pirates have covered the run line in 11 of their last 18 games (+2.90 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Pirates vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Wednesday, 5-28-2025 |
| First pitch | 3:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet Pittsburgh, ARID |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Paul Skenes (3-5, 2.36 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Zac Gallen (3-6, 5.25 ERA) |
Pirates vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Pirates vs Diamondbacks weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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