The Pittsburgh Pirates look for their sixth win in seven games as they take on the slumping St Louis Cardinals on Wednesday night at Busch Stadium.
The Pirates give Carmen Mlodzinski just his second start in three months after an 8-3 win on Tuesday night. Sonny Gray takes the mound for the Cardinals, who have lost nine of their last 13 games and slid under .500 for the year.
Find out why I’m expecting runs in my Pirates vs. Cardinals predictions and MLB picks for Wednesday, August 27.
Pirates vs Cardinals prediction
Pirates vs Cardinals best bet: Over 7.5 runs (+100)
There’s value with the Over in this game, given we’re getting even-money odds. That’s because neither of these starting pitchers have been very good of late.
Carmen Mlodzinski is making just his second start since May. Although he pitched well on August 17 against the Cubs, where he allowed just one hit and one run over four innings, he’s been getting crushed by teams when he gets into the order a second time.
His ERA in the first inning this season is 0.90 while he’s yet to surrender a run in the second. But his ERA in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th inning lies at 6.30, 10.24, and 7.71 respectively.
And his road ERA this season is 5.10, vastly higher than his 2.56 ERA at home despite a difference of only four innings pitched.
On the other side, Sonny Gray has given up a home run in seven straight starts, with 10 dingers allowed in total. He’s coughed up nine earned in his last two outings, allowing 15 hits and walking three over 10 IP.
He’s seen a drop of 1.2 mph on his fastball this season, and his cutter usage is also down. Opponents are taking advantage, posting a 7.9% solid contact rate and 9.6% barrel rate — both the highest marks of Gray’s career.
Making matters worse, the St. Louis Cardinals have the second-worst infield defense according to BatX.
And while the weather is balmier than usual for this time of year, we’ve seen plenty of offense in this series. The teams combined for 11 runs last night after 13 in the opener.
For those who like trends, the Over is 8-2 in the last 10 games for the Cardinals—and it’s 9-1 in their last 10 games that didn’t follow an off day.
The odds of us not seeing runs here, given the suspect starting pitching and the offensive output thus far in the series, provide us a solid edge in this situation.
Take the Over up to -115.
Pirates vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
While Sonny Gray has reached 7+ Ks in three of his last four starts, I expect he will get a run before he has a chance to do so.
He’s failed to register more than 5 IP in seven of his last nine starts since the beginning of July, and he’s allowed first-inning runs in each of his last two starts as opponents are getting to him early.
Bryan Reynolds is hitting .304 since the break, and .315 in the month of August. He’s notched 17 XBH this month, including 12 doubles, and has driven in 15 runs and scored 12 times.
He’s got 2+ hits + runs + RBI in seven of his last nine outings, with 10 hits + runs + RBI already in the first two games of the series.
Pirates vs Cardinals odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +143 | St. Louis -170
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-145) | St. Louis -1.5 (+122)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (+100) | Under 7.5 (-120)
Pirates vs Cardinals trend
The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.90 Units / 64% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Cardinals.
How to watch Pirates vs Cardinals and game info
| Location | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date | Wednesday, August 27, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX Sports 1 |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Carmen Mlodzinski (0-0, 3.89 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Sonny Gray (12-6, 4.33 ERA) |
Pirates vs Cardinals latest injuries
Pirates vs Cardinals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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