Three teams in the National League won 100 or more games this season. None of them will meet for the NL pennant.
That’s because the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres have done the unthinkable by starting in the Wild Card round and took out all who have stood in their path. Now they will face off in the National League Championship Series.
And even though they may not have been the top teams in the regular seasons, this series will be loaded with star power. Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and Rhys Hoskins just to name a few.
But it will be pitching that takes center stage in Game 1 when Zack Wheeler toes the rubber against Yu Darvish. I dig through the numbers and bring you a best bet in our MLB betting picks and predictions for the Phillies vs. Padres.
Phillies vs Padres best odds
Phillies vs Padres picks and predictions
It’s kind of funny, considering it’s the postseason, and the fact they’ve already faced two division winners, but the Phillies have gotten to the NLCS with relative ease.
Philly started with a two-game sweep of the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium, then followed that up by taking out the defending World Series champion Atlanta Braves in four games — outscoring Atlanta 24-7.
The Padres, on the other hand, have taken a bit of a longer road. To be fair they had to take out the 101-win New York Mets, and the 111-win Los Angeles Dodgers on the way.
No matter the path, we get an excellent matchup on the mound in Game 1.
Zack Wheeler put together another strong season for the Phillies, pitching to a 2.82 ERA, giving up a .221 opponent batting average, and striking out over a batter an inning. On top of that, he continued to be a reliable innings eater, averaging nearly six innings per start.
Meanwhile, Yu Darvish was lights out for the Padres in the second half of the season. The veteran right-hander pitched to a 2.71 ERA, limited opponents to a .199 batting average, and also struck out more than a batter an inning.
On top of that, Wheeler and Darvish have pitched well in their first two postseason starts and they’ve each made one start against the other team in this matchup when these two met in Philly back in May.
They both threw seven shutout innings. Wheeler gave up four hits and struck out nine with no walks, while Darvish allowed six hits and struck out five with no walks.
While both lineups have some explosive bats in them, I really expect this to be a classic Championship Series battle, highlighted by excellent starting pitching. That’s why I’m betting the Under 3.5 in the first five innings.
My best bet: First five innings Under 3.5 (-125 at bet365)
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Phillies vs Padres NLCS odds
| Teams | Odds to win series |
|---|---|
 Philadelphia Phillies |
+105 |
 San Diego Padres |
-120 |
Phillies vs Padres moneyline analysis
I have a feeling this is going to be a very close series, and so do sportsbooks with San Diego just a -120 favorite to advance to its first World Series since 1998. The story is similar in Game 1 with the Padres on the board as -125 home favorites. And it’s easy to see why, because there isn’t much separating these two teams.
As we’ve broken down, the starters are close to a wash. The bullpens ranked 10th (San Diego) and 11th (Philadelphia) in FIP in the latter half of the season and both teams’ high-leverage relievers have looked good so far this postseason. (I’m looking at you, Josh Hader).
But when it comes to the lineups I will give the edge to the Phillies. And not just because they’ve averaged 5.3 runs per game in the postseason. Philly has had the more powerful and reliable lineup all season long and has been notably better when facing right-handers.
The Phillies ranked 11th in batting average, seventh in OPS, and fifth in home runs when facing right-handed hurlers, while the Padres came in at 19th, 17th, and 23rd in those categories.
With everything else being close to a wash, I’d lean toward the Phillies and their hot lineup at the plus money.
Phillies vs Padres Over/Under analysis
Clearly, I like this game to be low-scoring early, so I would lean towards the Under when it comes to the full-game total as well. But there are a few things that held me back there.
One is the potent nature of the Phillies' offense. They are on fire right now and have put up some good numbers against some good starters so far in the postseason. And second, while the bullpens for both teams have been better in the second half, they have each proven to have their respective issues at various points this season.
That’s why I’m sticking to my first five total.
Phillies vs Padres trend to know
The Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings between the Phillies and Padres. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Padres
Phillies vs Padres game info
| Location: | PETCO Park, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Tuesday, October 18, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 8:03 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA): Wheeler finished the regular season strong, giving up just one run over his final three stats, and has carried that over into the postseason holding opponents to three runs on six hits over 12 1-3 playoff innings.
Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.10 ERA): In a rotation full of big names, Darvish has clearly been the best for the Padres. The right-hander recorded a quality start 20 times in the last 23 instances he has taken the ball in the regular season.
Phillies vs Padres latest injuries
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Phillies vs Padres weather
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