Phillies vs Diamondbacks Predictions, Picks, Odds: Wheeler Slams the Door Shut on Arizona

And just like that, the NLCS is tied. Call it a choke from the Philadelphia Phillies or a clutch performance from the young Arizona Diamondbacks in the World Series odds.

Whatever you'd like to call it, the Diamondbacks got the job done last night with an 8th-inning rally. Pinch-hitter Alex Thomas stepped up to the plate and sent a two-run home run out of the park to tie the game up for Arizona. Catcher Gabriel Moreno followed that up by drilling a go-ahead RBI a few batters later, and the D-backs never looked back. 

What are the best MLB picks for this Game 5 matchup? Find out as we dissect the latest MLB odds in our MLB playoff predictions for Saturday, October 21.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks odds

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Game 5 odds

Phillies vs Diamondbacks series odds

Team
Phillies	-170	-172	-180	-190	-175
Diamondbacks	+135	+140	+160	+160	+145

Phillies vs Diamondbacks predictions

A couple of days ago, it seemed like the Philadelphia Phillies were unstoppable and would easily advance to a second straight World Series. Then they came to Arizona, and some magic happened.

The simple reality is they'll need an all-time performance from ace Zack Wheeler if they want to return to the City of Brotherly Love with a series lead. Not only does Philly need someone to cool the Arizona Diamondbacks bats, but it also needs someone to provide length for a bullpen that has been bumped around for the past few days.  

Luckily for Philly, you couldn't ask for a better man for the job. If earlier performances from the postseason are any indication, Wheeler looks primed for dominance. In each postseason start he's made this season, he's gone at least six innings, including when he faced the D-backs earlier in this series. The right-hander lasted more than six innings in that one and allowed two earned runs with eight strikeouts. 

The Phillies bullpen is extremely worn out as they used seven different pitchers yesterday, with two better relief pitchers throwing more than 20 pitches. Other than a well-rested Jose Alvarado at their disposal, I wonder if manager Rob Thomson has much trust in anyone else.

That means the leash for Wheeler will be longer than you might expect for a postseason game. 

Wheeler has eclipsed Over 16.5 outs in all three postseason starts that he's made, but even before that, he was covering it at a high clip. He comes into this matchup with an 80% cover rate in his last 10 games and an 80% cover rate in his previous 30 games. 

Much like he did in the first matchup, I like Wheeler to get a good amount of chase from the Arizona bats. A young team playing in a huge postseason game may be susceptible to pushing at the plate, and that plays directly to Wheeler's strength. Throughout his career, he's been a chase-reliant pitcher, and this season is no different as he sits in the top 20% of baseball in chase rate. 

Here's the scenario tonight: We're getting a pitcher who has regularly eclipsed his outs number throughout the season and improved that record in the postseason. We're also getting that player in a situation where it is more advantageous than usual for his manager to leave him in longer.

I have to take this edge as my best bet and would play it up to 17.5 if needed. 

My best bet: Zach Wheeler Over 16.5 outs (-140)

Phillies vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay

Zach Wheeler to record the win

Zach Wheeler Under 4.5 hits allowed

Zac Gallen Over 15.5 outs

+850 at BetMGM

As of publication, "Wheeler outs'' wasn't a prop available anywhere to be used in a same-game parlay. Because of that, we've pivoted to Wheeler getting the win. 

I will lean on the Phillies' postseason experience to bring them home in such a big game. They let one slip away yesterday and I'll bank on them to bounce back from it.

My second leg is taking Wheeler to cash Under 4.5 hits. It's highly correlated to him going over this outs number, but again, I'm leaning on him to generate plenty of chases tonight.

Finishing up things is backing Zac Gallen to record Over 15.5 outs. Gallen has been a completely different pitcher at home, and he's gone Over this number in nine of his last 10 starts at Chase Field. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Phillies vs Diamondbacks moneyline and Over/Under analysis

My projections of the moneyline are nearly identical to the odds we've gotten, and I see no reason to push that. A bet on Philly here is a fade of the youthfulness of the D-backs.

As mentioned above, I expect to get some overeagerness at the plate from Arizona. Corbin Carroll's struggles in this series are good evidence of this. The youngster has gotten just one hit in this series in 15 plate appearances, and you'll see some of that filter to the rest of the team in such a big matchup.  

When it comes to the total, I like the Under here. With two aces on the mound, it's hard not to. 

This strikes me as your typical grind-it-out postseason playoff game. In taking the Under, however, you are fading a recent trend in Phillies games. Their last three games have all gone Over with an average total of 8.5. That said, three of the last four starts for Zac Gallen have all gone Under. 

Trend to know

The Phillies have hit the moneyline in 67 of their last 110 games (+10.70 Units / 7% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Diamondbacks

Phillies vs Diamondbacks game info

Starting pitchers

Zach Wheeler (2-0, 2.37 ERA): Historically speaking, Wheeler has had more of a down season. It's the third-highest ERA he's posted in his career, along with the highest hard-hit rate and the third-highest exit velocity allowed. With that said, the righty excels at getting swings and misses, boosting both a K-rate and whiff rate that is in the Top 30% of baseball. 

Zac Gallen (2-1, 4.96 ERA): Gallen was having a great playoff until he came to Philly. Often, that's where dreams of pitchers have gone to die in the postseason, and he was no exception. Against them, he allowed five earned runs in just five innings, and it seemed Philly was sitting on many of his pitches. It's been indicative of what we've seen from Gallen this season overall. He's been a different pitcher on the road, where his ERA, WHIP, and xFIP have all soared. He offers up one of the best fastballs in the league with an average velocity that ranks in the Top 98% of baseball, and it's a pitch he'll have to lean on tonight.  

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