The Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs face off at Wrigley Field tonight for the second contest of a three-game set after the Phills took the opener 5-1 last night. Despite that loss, the Cubs have won 11 of their last 15 games while the Phillies are 16-5 in their previous 21 contests.
MLB betting odds opened with the Phillies as -130 road favorites with the Over/Under at 8.5 for today's clash. Here are my best free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Cubs on June 28.
Looking for today's game? Check out our Phillies vs. Cubs picks for Thursday, June 29.
Phillies vs Cubs odds
Phillies vs Cubs predictions
The Phillies are sending ace Aaron Nola to the mound tonight. While Nola has middling numbers this season, he has a proven track record and finished fourth in the NL Cy Young voting last year after posting a 3.25 ERA with a 2.58 FIP and a 0.96 WHIP in 32 starts.
Nola's expected ERA of 3.51 is significantly lower than his actual ERA of 4.38 and he's coming off an excellent start against the high-powered Braves where he allowed just two hits and zero runs in six innings. The Cubs are third in the majors in walk rate but they'll have a tough time getting a free pass against Nola and they rank 20th in the majors in hard-hit rate while the Philadelphia righty doesn't allow much hard contact to speak of.
The Cubs are responding with veteran Drew Smyly who has a 3.38 ERA and 1.22 WHIP through 15 starts. Smyly is also coming off a stellar performance when he pitched five innings of shutout ball against the Pirates last week. The southpaw ranks in the top 30th percentile in barrel rate while ranking in the top 20th percentile in average exit velocity and hard hit rate.
The Phillies are a modest 13th in the majors in OPS (.738) with that number dropping to .717 against lefties like Smyly. Meanwhile, the Cubs are just 25th in the majors with an OPS of .690 since the start of May.
With a couple of reliable arms on the mound and a struggling Cubs lineup, I'm taking the Under on the first five innings.
My best bet: First Five innings Under 4.5 (-115 at bet365)
Phillies vs Cubs same-game parlay
First five innings Under 4.5 (-115)
Bryce Harper Under 1.5 total bases (-140)
Seiya Suzuki Under 1.5 total bases (-180)
Bryce Harper might be a two-time NL MVP but he has been awful lately. He has a 26-game home run drought and has a slugging percentage of just .268 over that span.
The left-handed hitter also struggles against pitchers working from the same side like Smyly. He had a slugging percentage of just .427 against southpaws last year (compared to .553 against righties) and that number has dropped to just .238 this season.
Seiya Suzuki has also been in a rut this month. The sophomore is slashing just .177/.247/.228 in June and has picked up more than 1.5 total bases in just one of his last 10 contests.
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Phillies vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Phillies opened as -120 faves but money has come in on them and they now sit at -135.
The Phillies beat the Cubs as -134 favorites last night and have now won seven straight games on the road. The Cubs have been stringing together wins lately, which has had a lot to do with strong pitching from Smyly, Marcus Stroman, and Justin Steele, since their lineup has gone ice-cold at the dish.
The Phillies made the World Series last year but are +1,500 to win the NL this season. Starters Nola and Zach Wheeler have regressed slightly and the offense hasn't been as productive despite a stacked lineup featuring Harper, Trea Turner, Kyle Schwarber, and J.T. Realmuto.
The total opened at 8 and has ticked up to 8.5.
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Trend to know
The Under is 5-0-1 in the Phillies' last six games on the road while going 4-1-1 in Chicago's last six contests overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Cubs
Phillies vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Wednesday, June 28, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSP, MARQ |
Starting pitchers
Aaron Nola (6-5, 4.38 ERA): Nola had a 3.24 FIP with a 1.08 WHIP and 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings in 143 starts between 2018 and 2022. While his WHIP sits at a comparable 1.07 this year, his FIP has surged to 4.06 and his strikeout rate has dropped to 24.3%. While he hasn't performed as badly as his ERA would suggest, he has been allowing far more fly balls when compared to last year.
Drew Smyly (7-4, 3.38 ERA): Now six years removed from Tommy John surgery, Smyly is back to being a reliable big league starter. He had a 3.47 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP in 22 starts last year and has similar numbers through 15 starts this season. Smyly has a limited arsenal and relies primarily on a sinker and curveball.
