There's a full slate of 15 games this Sunday with the late game taking place at Truist Park between the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves.
These sides have split the first two games of a three-game set in Atlanta, and oddsmakers are expecting a close contest tonight with the Phillies installed as the slimmest of favorites at -115.
Here are our best free MLB betting picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Braves on May 9, with the first pitch scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET.
Phillies vs Braves odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThe Phillies opened as slight -115 moneyline favorites on the road and have stayed steady around the price most of the day, drawing 62 percent of the moneyline handle but just 51 percent of the bet count at DraftKings sportsbooks. The total for this game hit the board at 8 (Under -115) and has dropped to 7.5 (-110) runs, despite 86 percent of bets on the Over. In comparison, the handle for the total has drawn only 59 percent of the money to the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Phillies vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Aaron Nola (3-1, 2.89 ERA): The Phillies right-hander has looked like the best hurler on their staff, pitching to a 0.98 WHIP and holding opponents to an OPS of .595 through seven starts this season. The 27-year-old is coming off an excellent performance against the Brewers where he allowed one run and fanned 10 batters in six innings of work.
Huascar Ynoa (3-1, 2.36 ERA): After 11 up-and-down appearances over the last two years, the 22-year-old Ynoa is having a breakout season, pitching to a 0.90 WHIP through six starts while limiting opponents to a batting average of just .187. He's coming off a brilliant performance against the Nationals, pitching seven innings with just one unearned run allowed and he also hit a grand slam in the 6-1 Atlanta victory.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Phillies: Matt Joyce LF (Out).
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. (Questionable), Travis d'Arnaud C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 20-7-3 in Atlanta's last 30 home games versus a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves.
Moneyline pick
The Braves are coming off an epic 12-inning, 8-7 victory last night to give them four wins in their last five games. They come into this contest 12th in the majors in scoring with 4.64 runs per game while ranking eighth in OPS at .731.
Atlanta also leads the majors in home runs per game with 1.41, although the league's top home run hitter, Ronald Acuna Jr., is listed as questionable for today after getting hit in the hand by a pitch last night.
Ynoa, the Braves' 22-year-old starter, is heavily reliant on two pitches — his overpowering fastball and slider — but both have been money this season, helping him log at least five innings and holding opponents to two runs or fewer in five of six starts.
Philadelphia's defeat last night snapped a five-game winning streak. The Phillies are 17th in the majors with 4.24 runs per game while ranking just 20th with an OPS of .687.
The Phillies will also be sending a strong starter to the hill with Nola and his 2.89 ERA. Nola is no stranger to pitching against the Braves, going 11-6 with a 3.03 ERA and an opponent batting average of .228 in 21 career games versus Atlanta. That said, he's been a bit less reliable at Truist Park where he is 2-4 with a 3.97 ERA and a .243 opponent batting average in eight career starts.
The Phillies are just 16-35 in their last 51 games on the road and are 7-15 in their previous 22 contests in Atlanta. The Braves, meanwhile, are 35-16 in their previous 51 home games against teams with a winning record. In what should be another close game, look for home-field advantage to be the deciding factor.
PREDICTION: Atlanta (+100)
Over/Under pick
As great as both starting pitchers have been this season, there is plenty of reason to go against the line movement and back the Over 7.5 runs tonight.
We mentioned that Nola's career numbers at Truist Park have been significantly worse than at home but that should be expected given the hitter-friendly confines in Atlanta.
Going back to the start of last season the Braves are plating a whopping 5.91 runs per game at home, compared to 4.87 runs/game on the road. That discrepancy has led to the Braves going a commanding 33-15-3 O/U in their last 51 games at home.
While Ynoa's overall numbers have been impressive, his expected batting average of .272 and hard-hit percentage of 50.6, suggest that regression is inevitable.
Both bullpens have also looked shaky, as Braves relief pitchers have posted a 4.56 ERA and a WHIP of 1.49, while Phillies relievers are pitching to a 5.03 ERA. With the Over cashing in five straight games between these NL East rivals, back it again tonight.
PREDICTION: Over 7.5 (-110)
Phillies vs Braves betting card
- Atlanta (+100)
- Over 7.5 (-110)
Picks made on 5/09/2021 at 10:30 a.m. ET
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