Phillies vs Braves Predictions, Picks, Odds: Acuna Lights It Up Again

The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves face off at Truist Park on Friday night. The Braves took the first contest in this four-game set last night and are pulling away atop the NL East standings.

Despite finishing as the runners-up in last year's World Series, the Phillies are off to a slow start and are in fourth place in the division, already trailing Atlanta by eight games.

MLB betting lines opening with the Braves as -160 home favorites for today with the Over/Under at 10.5. Here are my best free Phillies vs. Braves MLB picks and predictions for May 26.

Phillies vs Braves odds

Phillies vs Braves predictions

Atlanta's Ronald Acuna Jr. broke out as a 20-year-old rookie in 2018 and followed up on that with back-to-back Silver Slugger awards in 2019 and 2020. Acuna was on track for another monster season in 2021 before suffering a season-ending ACL injury. While his production dipped in his comeback season last year, he looks like he's back to being one of the best hitters in the world. 

Acuna is slashing .332/.419/.577 and leads the majors with 113 total bases through 50 games. The sweet-swinging outfielder ranks near the top of the majors in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate, while rarely striking out.

He should have another productive game tonight with the Phillies sending Taijuan Walker and his 5.12 FIP to the hill. Walker relies on three pitches in his arsenal and while his splitter can be tough on batters, Acuna mashes against the four-seamers and sinkers that he also likes to use.

Although some of Atlanta's hitters have struggled against righthanded pitchers this season, Acuna has excelled against both righties and southpaws. With models projecting Acuna to pick up 2.7 total bases today, back the Over 1.5 on his total bases at a pick'em price.

My best bet: Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (-110)

Phillies vs Braves moneyline analysis

The Braves beat the Phillies 8-5 last night to improve to 31-19 on the year. That was the Phillies' eighth loss in their last 11 games and dropped their record to 23-27.

While the Phillies made a surprise run to the World Series last year, that was due in large part to the pitching duo of Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, who have underperformed this season.

Walker was signed in the offseason to provide Philly with another reliable arm, but his ERA has skyrocketed from 3.49 in 2022 to 5.79 through 10 starts this year. 

The Braves are responding with rookie Jared Shuster. Shuster is the latest top prospect to enter their rotation but his ceiling is significantly lower than other guys that have come through lately like Spencer Strider and Bryce Elder. The lefty is coming off the best performance of his career but still has an ugly 5.49 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP through 19 2/3 innings.

The Braves are second in the majors in OPS (.792) while ranking fifth in scoring with 5.18 runs per game. They also rank first in the majors in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate. indicating that they could be even more productive at the plate. 

The Phillies are 12th in the majors in OPS (.741) while ranking 19th in barrel rate and 20th in hard-hit rate. That said, they have a solid lineup anchored by Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, and Kyle Schwarber. With sluggers like that in their lineup, they should be much more productive than they've been so far this season. 

Phillies vs Braves Over/Under analysis

We've already mentioned that both starters have struggled mightily this season, but they're coming off their best performances. Walker allowed just two hits and no runs in 5 1/3 innings against the Cubs while Shuster fanned seven batters in six innings of one-run ball versus the Mariners.

It's also worth mentioning that both lineups have platoon splits that suggest that they might not have their usual success today. 

The Phillies are 22nd in the majors in OPS against southpaws like Shuster (.705) while the Braves are a modest 15th in OPS (.729) and 23rd in batting average (.233) versus righthanded starters like Walker.

Phillies vs Braves game info

Starting pitchers

Taijuan Walker (3-2, 5.79 ERA): Walker had an impressive 3.49 ERA with a 1.19 WHIP in 29 starts last year, but has massively regressed this season. Despite honing his splitter he still doesn't make many batters miss and has a high walk rate as well. 

Although Walker performed much better as a Met the last two years, he still had a rough time when facing off against the Braves. He was torched for eight runs in just a single inning against the Braves last year and his final start against them in 2021 resulted in five runs scored in five innings.

Jared Shuster (1-2, 5.49 ERA): The 24-year-old rookie is coming off a strong start but his analytics suggest that more rough outings are on the horizon. He ranks in the Bottom 25th percentile in hard-hit rate and expected ERA while sitting in the Bottom 10th percentile in average exit velocity.

Shuster doesn't have much velocity or movement on his four-seamer and needs to improve his control. He had nine walks through just 8 2/3 innings in his first couple of starts and he issued 14 walks in 24 2/3 innings at Triple-A Gwinnett.

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The Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these NL East foes. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves

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