The New York Mets host the San Diego Padres in the second matchup of this three-game series at Citi Field. MLB odds list New York as a -115 favorite, while the total sits at 8.
My Padres vs. Mets prediction targets the road side in this National League contest based on the starting pitching matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Wednesday, September 17.
Padres vs Mets prediction
Padres vs Mets best bet: Padres moneyline (+105)
The New York Mets hand the ball to left-hander David Peterson, whose analytics suggest now is the time to sell high. Despite a solid ERA, Peterson carries a 1.32 WHIP and a 4.32 xERA.
The southpaw also ranks in the 16th percentile or lower in xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. This expected regression has already started to kick in recently.
Over his past three starts, Peterson owns a 10.95 ERA and 2.19 WHIP.
Meanwhile, right-hander Nick Pivetta takes the mound for the San Diego Padres. Producing a stellar 2025 campaign, Pivetta is 13-5 with a 2.73 ERA and 0.95 WHIP through 29 starts.
His underlying metrics are equally impressive. Entering this matchup, Pivetta ranks in the 60th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, and walk rate.
He’s served as a Top-10 pitcher in the National League this season, and that success is likely to continue against the Mets. Pivetta is 2-0 with a 3.57 ERA against them over the past five meetings.
Padres vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Pivetta has thrived at generating swings and misses, ranking in the 79th percentile in strikeout rate this season. Subsequently, he has recorded six or more strikeouts in four of his past five starts.
Meanwhile, Peterson ranks in the bottom half of the league in chase rate, whiff rate, and strikeout rate.
Padres vs Mets SGP
- Padres moneyline
- Nick Pivetta Over 5.5 strikeouts
- David Peterson Under 4.5 strikeouts
Padres vs Mets odds
- Moneyline: San Diego -105 | New York -115
- Run line: San Diego -1.5 (+165) | New York +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Padres vs Mets trend
New York has lost eight of its past 10 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Mets.
How to watch Padres vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, September 17, 2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | SDPA, SNY |
| Padres starting pitcher | Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.73 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | David Peterson (9-5, 3.77 ERA) |
Padres vs Mets latest injuries
Padres vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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