The San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners meet again tonight at T-Mobile Park for Game 2 of their three-game series.
Padres starter Dylan Cease hasn’t looked sharp in recent outings, but his strikeout stuff is still there — and I’ll break down why that matters in my Padres vs. Mariners predictions.
Check out my full MLB picks for Tuesday, August 26.
Padres vs Mariners prediction
Padres vs Mariners best bet: Dylan Cease Over 6.5 strikeouts (-140)
Once a Cy Young candidate, Dylan Cease isn’t having that same success in 2025. The right-hander owns a 6-11 record and 4.71 ERA across 26 starts for the Padres, with opponents hitting .238. After a pair of impressive outings to begin August, Cease has struggled in his last two appearances.
However, despite his ERA sitting just below five, he is still racking up the Ks. Cease has 178 strikeouts in 137.2 innings of work. The veteran has cashed the Over in punchouts in three of his last four starts, sitting down seven via the K previous time out against the San Francisco Giants.
On the road, Cease has struck out 81 hitters in 65.1 frames. When it comes to facing the Seattle Mariners, they’re hitting .268 against him across 71 at-bats, but Cease has 19 strikeouts during that span.
Even if he does give up some runs here, Cease will continue to do what he does best – get a handful of his outs from strikeouts.
Padres vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
One hitter in the Seattle lineup who has enjoyed himself against Cease is Eugenio Suarez. The slugger, who now has 40 homers on the season, is 4-for-11 lifetime versus Cease with a pair of home runs.
He’s hitting .263 against righties compared to under .200 against lefties. While Suarez is hitless across his last three games, he cashed the Over in hits in three straight prior to that. This is the perfect opportunity for him to break out of this mini-slump.
Luis Arraez is a hit machine, as we all know. He makes every pitcher work for their outs, rarely striking out. Arraez is batting .286 and he’ll be exciting for tonight’s matchup. The Mariners send Luis Castillo to the mound.
Arraez is 4-for-6 lifetime against Castillo with three doubles. He just cashed Over 1.5 hits in the series opener on Monday, finishing the evening 2-for-5.
Padres vs Mariners odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +100 | Seattle -120
- Run line: San Diego -1.5 (+170) | Seattle +1.5 (-210)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-118) | Under 7.5 (-102)
Padres vs Mariners trend
The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 62 of their last 112 games (+11.55 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Mariners.
How to watch Padres vs Mariners and game info
| Location | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date | Tuesday, August 26, 2025 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SDPA, Root Sports |
| Padres starting pitcher | Dylan Cease (6-11, 4.71 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher | Luis Castillo (8-7, 3.57 ERA) |
Padres vs Mariners latest injuries
Padres vs Mariners weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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