The San Diego Padres are once again putting the pressure on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West, and if they manage to win their sixth game in seven tries on Tuesday they may find themselves in a tie for first place entering play on Wednesday.
We’ll explain in our Padres vs Giants predictions why the starting pitcher in this one with an ERA over seven runs should have the far easier task at hand in a big divisional matchup on the road.
Without further ado, let’s hand out some MLB picks for Tuesday, August 12.
Padres vs Giants prediction
Padres vs Giants best bet: Padres moneyline (+100 at FanDuel)
Tuesday’s game will pit two heavy fly-ball lefties against one another inside of a large ballpark that’s been known to aid pitchers like them. With that said, the man who’s had the far better season between the two should be the one who’s in for trouble.
There are a few contributing factors here, but the first is that the San Francisco Giants have been abysmal both against lefties and fly-ball arms, ranking in the bottom five to both.
That should set Nestor Cortes up for success — something he hasn’t had a lot of at the big-league level this year, but something that he’s been quietly finding ever since his infamous Opening Day start at Yankee Stadium.
Cortes went down to the minors last month, posting a 1.00 ERA in four outings, and most importantly, he managed to come home with a 4.3% walk rate. That’s a good sign for the journeyman, considering walks have hurt him through his first 12 1/3 innings at this level. While homers have also hurt him, hits haven’t; he’s come home with a .233 xBA at this level and should continue finding that kind of groove in his brand-new pitcher’s park in San Diego.
Oracle Park, of course, is arguably even more friendly than PETCO Park. With a matchup advantage against an ice-cold Giants team that hasn’t hit for power in quite some time, you have to like his chances of keeping San Francisco somewhat at bay at the very least.
On the opposite side of this matchup, we have Robbie Ray, who’s had the far better season but is coming off his worst month of the season in July. His xBA has gone up with each passing month, even with two solid starts this season against slumping lineups, and his Expected Slugging remains far higher than it was entering June.
The San Diego Padres are a team that feasts on pitchers like this; it struggles against ground-ballers who know how to navigate contact-first teams, but it has been quite strong in the reverse split. Mix in the fact that the Padres have performed equally well against both righties and lefties, and you’ve got yourself a live underdog.
Padres vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Padres moneyline
Nestor Cortest Over 15.5 outs
Luis Arraez 2+ total bases
You know I’m a big believer in Cortes here, and if he’s able to limit the walks and hits against a Giants team that has been impatient over the last month and could not make an impact against fly-ballers and lefties, I think he should be handed the ball to go as long as he needs to. San Diego’s looking for some length out of its starters with the bullpen working very hard over the last four games, and they’ll let the veteran give them as much as he can.
I also love Luis Arraez in this spot. He’s heating up with three multi-hit efforts in his last four — including two doubles — and he’s hit .313 versus fly-ballers and .279 versus lefties, leading the team in hits both ways. Sure, it makes sense given his lineup spot and his contact prowess, but we do know that this one is going to be tough for Ray given his recent form.
Padres vs Giants odds
Padres vs Giants live odds
Padres vs Giants opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +114 | San Francisco -134
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-205) | San Francisco -1.5 (+168)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Padres vs Giants trend
The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 28 of their last 41 games at home (+13.60 Units / 28% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Giants.
How to watch Padres vs Giants and game info
| Location | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date | Tuesday, August 12, 2025 |
| First pitch | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | PADRES.tv, NBCSBA |
| Padres starting pitcher | Nestor Cortes (1-1, 7.11 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher | Robbie Ray (9-5, 2.85 ERA) |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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