The San Diego Padres face their arch nemesis of the NL West — the Los Angeles Dodgers — in Game 1 of the NLDS on Tuesday night.
San Diego is flying high following its Wild Card series victory over the 101-win Mets, but must now contend with the 111-win Dodgers, who became just the seventh team in MLB history to record 110 or more victories in a season.
Can San Diego stun its division rivals on the road in this spot? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Padres vs Dodgers on Tuesday, October 11.
Padres vs Dodgers best odds
Padres vs Dodgers picks and predictions
Taking the Dodgers on the run line is very tempting, but the safer play at better odds is an Over wager on the L.A. team total.
The Dodgers boast the No. 1 offense in the majors this season, plating 5.23 runs per contest. They were the only team in baseball to average more than five runs per game.
Freddie Freeman may have lost the NL batting title in the waning days of the season to the Mets’ Jeff McNeil, but it’s not as though he had a bad second half. In fact, he hit .331 after the All-Star break, pacing his club (min. 100 at-bats).
Freeman is just one of many imposing bats in Dave Roberts’ lineup. Mookie Betts (.883 OPS in the second half) must be dealt with at the top of the order, and Justin Turner has had a second-half renaissance for L.A., recording a .889 OPS in that span. Max Muncy's power must be respected, and likewise, Trea Turner’s speed.
Mike Clevinger is a highly vulnerable opponent for the Dodgers’ bats. He posted a 7.88 ERA in September in five starts, failing to go further than 5 2-3 innings in each of those efforts. The Dodgers roughed him up to the tune of nine earned runs over 8 1-3 innings in two of those performances.
Clevinger’s inability to pitch deep into games is not a sudden development, as his season average is 4.97 innings per start. Bettors can expect L.A. to get plenty of cracks at the soft underbelly of the Padres’ bullpen. This unit’s weaknesses were on full display in Game 2 of San Diego’s Wild Card series with the Mets, as Nick Martinez and Adrian Morejon failed to bail out a balky Blake Snell.
My best bet: Dodgers team total Over 4.5 (+105 at Unibet)
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Padres vs Dodgers [Series] odds
|Odds to win series
|San Diego Padres
|Los Angeles Dodgers
Padres vs Dodgers moneyline analysis
The price may not be all that appetizing, but the well-rested Dodgers look quite imposing against the Padres — whom they beat by 22 games for the NL West crown this season.
Despite their Wild Card round triumph, San Diego is still 5-11 in its last 16 playoff games. It's also 1-5 in its last six tilts after allowing two or fewer runs in its previous affair. That includes the Game 2 loss in New York on Saturday night.
It’s difficult to find a negative trend for a team that wins as often as the Dodgers, who have taken eight of their last 11 playoff games at home. They’re 41-11 in their last 52 home games against teams with winning records, and 40-12 in their last 52 contests against division foes. L.A. has owned its in-state rivals in recent years, taking 45 of its last 61 meetings at Dodger Stadium.
The Dodgers enjoy a huge starting pitching advantage on paper with NL Cy Young candidate Julio Urias squaring off with Clevinger. Urias authored a scant 1.26 ERA in 13 starts following the All-Star break.
Though the Friars have taken steps forward, even going as far as breaking the bank to acquire Juan Soto, they still have a way to go to catch up with a Dodger team that’s one year removed from a World Series title.
Padres vs Dodgers Over/Under analysis
The Dodgers’ hitters will likely do plenty of heavy lifting for Over bettors, but the Padres’ lineup — third in the majors in runs per game on the road in 2022 (5.00) — should not go quietly on Tuesday night.
Manny Machado and Juan Soto were not quieted by the New York pitching staff last weekend, as Machado took Max Scherzer deep and Soto delivered the knockout blow with a two-RBI hit in Game 3 against Edwin Diaz — but neither was the unofficial MVP of the series. That honor would have to be bestowed on Trent Grisham, who went 4-for-8 with a pair of homers and three RBIs batting from the No. 8 spot in the order.
Catcher Austin Nola had a 1.056 OPS hitting directly behind the San Diego center fielder. If either or both of these bottom-of-the-order batters can keep the momentum going, the Friars have half a chance of hanging with L.A. in this series.
Though San Diego faces a tall task taking on Urias, trend bettors should note that the Over is 6-0 in the Padres’ last six road games against southpaw starters.
Padres vs Dodgers trend to know
The Over is 7-1 in the Dodgers’ last eight home games against teams with winning records. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers
Padres vs Dodgers game info
|Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
|Tuesday, October 11, 2022
|9:37 p.m. ET
|Fox Sports 1
Mike Clevinger (7-7, 4.33 ERA): Mike Clevinger is not an ideal choice for the Padres’ Game 1 starter in this five-game NLDS, but manager Bob Melvin was backed into a corner as their Wild Card series with the Mets went the distance. Clevinger was 0-2 with a dismal 9.69 ERA in three starts (13 innings) against the Dodgers this season.
Julio Urias (17-7, 2.16 ERA): Julio Urias gets the starting nod for Game 1 for the Dodgers, and he’s flown under the radar as a Cy Young possibility despite ranking second in ERA, third in wins, and sixth in WHIP (0.96). Urias was outstanding in four starts (24 innings) against the Padres this year, going 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA and .181 opponent batting average.
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