The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs meet for Game 3 of their National League Wild Card series at Wrigley Field on Thursday, October 2, and the stakes couldn’t be any higher in the win-or-go-home showdown.
My Padres vs. Cubs predictions and top MLB picks are calling for Chicago to pull out the win in another low-scoring game in front of faithful fans at "The Friendly Confines" tonight.
Padres vs Cubs Game 3 predictions
Who will win Padres vs Cubs Game 3?
I give Chicago a starting pitching edge for the first time all series, as Cubs righty Jameson Taillon has been sharp at Wrigley Field over the past two years, while Padres starter Yu Darvish has struggled on the highway.
Look for the Cubbies to eke out another close one to advance to the NLDS.
Padres vs Cubs best bet
Jameson Taillon Over 9.5 outs recorded (-124)
There is no questioning the short leash Chicago Cubs righty Jameson Taillon will be on in Game 3 of the National League Wild Card series Thursday.
Still, the veteran righty was solid down the stretch with a tidy 1.85 ERA and 0.95 WHIP while recording at least 13 outs in each of his final seven regular-season starts.
Taillon has also been excellent at Wrigley Field the past two years with a 2.53 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
The San Diego Padres don’t have an imposing lineup and ranked 17th in wOBA and 27th in ISO against righties during the regular season. Of course, the Friars have also been held to just four runs on 11 hits through the first two games of the series.
Finally, I value that Chicago leaned on Matthew Boyd for 4 1/3 innings in Game 1, and Shota Imanaga threw four frames in Game 2 following opener Andrew Kittredge.
Padres vs Cubs Game 3 same-game parlay (SGP)
I give Chicago the starting pitching edge, and as good as the San Diego bullpen has been through the first two games of the series, Padres relievers Adrian Morejon, Mason Miller, and Robert Suarez have pitched in each.
Friars righty Yu Darvish has been hit hard on the road this season, too. Even his mediocre 4.31 xFIP on the highway can’t mask the unsightly 7.29 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and .360 wOBA allowed.
I’m also expecting another low-scoring game, with both teams trending to the Under long-term.
Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, Cubs star Kyle Tucker has looked more and more comfortable at the plate as this series has progressed, and he’s posted a high-end .277 batting average and .380 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past three years.
Returning to Darvish, he’s also surrendered a healthy .265 average and .376 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season.
Padres vs Cubs SGP
- Cubs moneyline
- Under 7.5
- Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Padres vs Cubs home run pick for Game 3
Kyle Tucker (+500)
Tucker has teed off on righties to the tune of a .237 ISO over the past three years, while Darvish has served up a healthy 2.2 HR/9 to left-handed hitters this season.
Padres vs Cubs Game 3 odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +105 | Chicago -125
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 | Chicago -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Padres vs Cubs trend
The Padres have hit the Under in 82 of their last 146 games (+14.45 Units / 9% ROI), and the Cubs have played to the Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+13.95 Units / 11% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Cubs.
How to watch Padres vs Cubs and Game 3 info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Thursday, July 28, 2025 |
| First pitch | 5:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Padres starting pitcher | Yu Darvish (5-5, 5.38 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Jameson Taillon 11-7, 3.68 ERA) |
Padres vs Cubs latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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