The Chicago Cubs hope their bats can stay hot when they host the San Diego Padres on Tuesday afternoon to open their National League Wild Card series.
The Cubs went 4-1 to end the season and scored 43 runs in their final six games. They’ll need that to continue against the Padres, who won seven of their last eight to secure their postseason spot.
My Padres vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks back Matthew Boyd to pitch the Cubs to an early lead on Tuesday, September 30.
Padres vs Cubs Game 1 predictions
Who will win Padres vs Cubs Game 1
Matthew Boyd has been lights-out at home this season, with a 12-1 record at Wrigley Field. Back the Cubs to get an early lead behind a resurgent offense.
Padres vs Cubs best bet
Cubs -0.5 — First Five Innings (+120)
Matthew Boyd has pitched quite well at home this season, especially over the past month. His ERA at Wrigley Field is just 2.51 while he’s gone 12-1 on the year. That’s compared to a 2-7 mark with a 3.90 ERA on the road.
His last home outing against the Mets saw him give up just two hits and two earned runs over 5 ⅓ IP. The Chicago Cubs led 8-2 when he exited the game. Before that, they led 6-4 after five frames against the Rays.
In fact, if you’d simply bet the Cubs to lead after five innings in all 15 of Boyd’s home starts this year, you would have quite a bit of money. That’s because the Cubs have led after five innings in 14 of those starts!
The other half of this play is his counterpart’s road struggles. Nick Pivetta has an xERA of 3.99, but has outperformed that with a 2.87 mark.
But on the road, he’s reverted to his expected numbers. He’s got an ERA of 3.55 and a WHIP of 1.14 away from Petco, much higher than his 2.36 ERA and 0.86 WHIP at home.
That holds true in Pivetta’s two outings against the Cubs this year. He pitched quite well at home, but he lasted just three IP at Wrigley as he coughed up three runs on six hits and three walks. And current Chicago hitters have a career .306 average against him.
Stats and trends often can be misleading, but a 14-1 run stands out. And you’re telling me I can get +120 for that to continue?
Yeah, I’m not gonna hesitate. Give me the Cubs to lead after the fifth.
Padres vs Cubs Game 1 same-game parlay (SGP)
Pete Crow-Armstrong has endured a rough second half of the season, but he’s shown signs of life over the past week. He’s notched hits in five of his last six starts — all at home — with a pair of home runs in this weekend’s series against the Cardinals.
Luis Arraez has 2+ hits/runs/RBI in nine of his last 12 games, and got hits in three of his five ABs against Boyd this season. He’s riding a 15-game hitting streak and will be a problem for the Cubs throughout the game.
Padres vs Cubs SGP
- Cubs -0.5 — First Five Innings
- Pete Crow-Armstrong 1+ hits
- Luis Arraez Over 1.5 H/R/R
Padres vs Cubs home run pick for Game 1
A big reason for the strong finish by the Cubs was the sudden power surge from Seiya Suzuki. He hadn’t hit a home run since August 6 and had just two since the All-Star break.
But on Thursday, he sent two pitches over the fence, and now has home runs in four straight games. At +500, I’ll back him to stay red-hot.
Padres vs Cubs Game 1 odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +102 | Chicago -112
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 (-228) | Chicago -1.5 (+196)
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Padres vs Cubs trend
The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 56 games at home (+16.90 Units / 18% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Cubs.
How to watch Padres vs Cubs and Game 1 info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Tuesday, September 30, 2025 |
| First pitch | 3:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
| Padres starting pitcher | Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.87 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Matthew Boyd (14-8, 3.21 ERA) |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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