The Washington Nationals are hoping to avoid a series sweep when they meet the New York Mets for their three-game series finale today.
Kodai Senga has been phenomenal for New York, but my Nationals vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks expect the conditions to be ripe for a short day for the NY righty on Thursday, June 12.
Nationals vs Mets prediction
My Nationals vs Mets best bet: Kodai Senga Under 17.5 outs (+158 at FanDuel)
National League Cy Young Award longshot Kodai Senga has been a breath of fresh air for the New York Mets.
The right-hander has a 48% whiff rate and a .120 batting average thanks to an improved forkball, and pitching deeper into games is the result.
Senga’s forkball has been a beauty, but his other underlying metrics, like a 4.10 xFIP and .260 BABIP, suggest the righty has had luck on his side.
Righties don’t bother the Washington Nationals much. They boast low strikeout (19.7%) and walk rates (7.7%) with a .242/.311/.401 slash line. A BABIP of .279 against righties could indicate positive regression on the horizon.
Senga is serving up the highest fly ball rate (41%) and hard-hit rate (32%) of his MLB career. High humidity and winds to right-center are expected, and his underlying metrics alongside a .306 BABIP to lefties suggest an early hook is likely for Senga today.
Nationals vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Kodai Senga Over 4.5 hits
James Wood 1+ total bases
Juan Soto 2+ total bases
Pitching outs aren’t included in the SGP markets, but Senga has surrendered 5+ hits in four of his previous five, and he’s served up nine hits across 38 at-bats and a .237/.383/.368/ slash line to this Nats lineup.
Senga has difficulties with lefty bats, and he could see as many as six today, including Nats LF James Wood. He’s hit safely in both games of this series. Wood has tormented righties with a .934 OPS and 11 of his 16 bombs.
Juan Soto has gone yard in both games and is 6-for-10 with a couple of home runs against Nationals starter Michael Soroka. The wind is blowing out, and Soroka has allowed one home run with 5+ hits in four of five previous starts.
Nationals vs Mets odds
Nationals vs Mets live odds
Nationals vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Washington +195 | New York -240
- Run line: Washington +1.5 (-105) | New York -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Nationals vs Mets trend
The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 19 away games (+8.05 Units / 42% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Mets.
How to watch Nationals vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, New York |
| Date | Thursday, 6-12-2025 |
| First pitch | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network, MASN, SNY |
| Nationals starting pitcher | Michael Soroka (3-3, 4.86 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Kodai Senga (6-3, 1.59 ERA) |
Nationals vs Mets latest injuries
Nationals vs Mets weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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