Nationals vs Mets Picks and Predictions: Can't Stop McNeil at the Plate

The Washington Nationals and the New York Mets will wrap up the 2022 regular season with a three-game series beginning Monday night at Citi Field. 

The Mets remain in the hunt for the NL East title but must sweep the Nationals while the Atlanta Braves lose their final three games to the Miami Marlins. Washington, on the other hand, is ready to finish up a long season that has already seen it lose 104 games.

With New York still alive in the divisional race, they will play their best lineup on Monday. We’ll find out what value that provides us in our MLB betting picks and predictions for Nationals vs. Mets. 

Nationals vs Mets best odds

Nationals vs Mets picks and predictions

The Mets suffered a demoralizing defeat at the hands of the Atlanta Braves this past weekend. After leading the NL East virtually wire-to-wire this season, they are now two games back with three to play.

With Atlanta now holding the season series tiebreaker, New York needs everything to go right over the final three games in order to win the division and avoid playing in the Wild Card round of the playoffs.

Not every Mets player struggled in Atlanta, though, as All-Star Jeff McNeil continued to rake, going 7-for-13 over three games. McNeil is hitting .326 on the year — just one point behind Freddie Freeman for the NL batting title — and has recorded at least two hits in each of his last five games.

McNeil should continue that success against the Nationals. Washington will send righthander Cory Abbott to the mound on Monday. The 27-year-old is in his second MLB season and has struggled to make an impact for the Nationals. He is 0-4 on the year — still searching for his first career win — with a 5.58 ERA while splitting time between the bullpen and the starting rotation. 

McNeil is particularly dangerous against right-handed pitching. He has hit .332 against righties this year, 20 points higher than against left-handers. Not only is Abbott right-handed, but so is every available reliever in the Washington bullpen. That means McNeil will get to take all of his at-bats against subpar right-handed pitching — the perfect setup for a big night. 

Now back to his contact-first approach in 2022, McNeil is one of the best average hitters in the majors. Over his last 24 games, McNeil is hitting .351, and I’m backing him to get multiple hits again on Monday night.

Despite everything seemingly lining up in his favor, we can still get a +180 price on McNeil to go Over 1.5 hits tonight. Based on his recent form and the quality of the pitching he’ll be facing, that number is far too generous to pass up.

My best bet: Jeff McNeil Over 1.5 hits (+180)

Nationals vs Mets moneyline analysis

The Mets opened Monday’s game as about a -300 favorite, and that number has only moved in New York’s direction. At some sites, you’ll have to pay as much as -335 to back the Mets on the moneyline right now.

That number reflects both the gulf in talent between these two teams and the lopsided pitching matchup. The Mets have won 11 of the first 16 meetings between these teams this season, outscoring the Nationals by 30 runs in those contests.

While New York still has the opportunity to win 100 games this year, Washington is 55-104, and will in all likelihood finish with the worst record in the majors this season.

Carlos Carrasco gets the start for the Mets and while Carrasco may be fighting for a spot in the New York postseason rotation, that’s more about the depth of the Mets staff rather than a slight on him. Carrasco has gone 15-7 with a 3.95 ERA for the Mets and has already faced Washington four times on the season, never allowing more than two earned runs. 

Meanwhile, the Nationals are just 1-8 in games Abbott has started for them this year. Interestingly, however, that one win did come against the Mets, when Abbott threw five shutout innings in Washington on August 2. 

Nationals vs Mets Over/Under analysis

The total for tonight’s game has held steady at 7.5 runs since opening last night. That number comes in a bit below the average for the season series between these teams, with the Mets and Nationals combining for 8.6 runs per game in their previous 16 meetings in 2022.

One reason for the slightly lower number may be the success both starters have had against the opposition. As I mentioned in the section above, Abbott had his best start of the year against the Mets, allowing no runs on just two hits over five innings back in August. His two relief appearances have also gone well against New York, allowing just one hit over two innings in those outings. 

Carrasco has already faced the Nationals four times this year. In those starts, he has put up a 2-1 record with a 1.80 ERA over 20 innings of work. However, his WHIP is a less impressive 1.30 in those starts, and he has allowed eight total runs, as Washington scored four unearned against him when they faced the Mets on September 4. 

McNeil isn’t the only Met looking forward to facing off against a fully right-handed Washington pitching staff. The Mets as a whole hit to a .750 OPS against righties, 33 points higher than against left-handed pitching. 

The Nationals are also slightly better against right-handers, though their lineup doesn’t hit particularly well against anyone. Washington has scored 3.84 runs per game against righthanded starters, slightly better than its average of 3.77 runs. 

Nationals vs Mets trend to know

Jeff McNeil has recorded at least two hits in seven of his last eight games. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Mets

Nationals vs Mets game info

Starting pitchers

Cory Abbott (0-4, 5.11 ERA): While Abbott has split the year between the bullpen and the starting rotation, he will be making his fourth straight appearance as a starter on Monday. Typical for a pitcher who dabbles in both starting and relieving, Abbott doesn’t tend to go long in his starts and has only thrown more than five innings once in nine tries.

He is coming off of a loss to the Atlanta Braves on September 26 in which he gave up four earned runs on three hits over five innings, taking the loss in an 8-0 defeat for the Nationals.

Carlos Carrasco (15-7, 3.95 ERA): After struggling in 2021, Carrasco has rebounded to become a solid back-of-the-rotation starter for the Mets in 2022. Over 148 innings, he has pitched to a 3.48 FIP and a 1.324 WHIP, both marked improvements over last year. He has cut his home run rate in half and is now allowing just one longball per nine innings while also increasing his strikeout rate and limiting his walks.

After a solid stretch to start September, Carrasco has struggled in his past two starts, going a total of only seven innings combined in those appearances. He last threw on September 27 against the Miami Marlins, taking a loss after allowing four runs on six hits over three innings of work. 

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